[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071729
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1229 PM EST Fri Dec 7 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A low pressure system and cold front will move across the Gulf of
Mexico this weekend. Behind the front, gale force winds along with
seas of 10 to 12 ft are forecast on Sunday in the SW Gulf of
Mexico south of 22N and west of 94W. See the latest High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 09N13W
to 08N18W. The ITCZ extends from 08N18W to 03N30W to 00N45W to
00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N southward
between the coast of Africa and the coast of South America.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge prevails across most of the basin, except along
the Texas and western Louisiana coasts. A 1019 mb surface low has
formed over south Texas near 28N99W. A cold front extends west
from the low over northern Mexico. A developing stationary front
extends NE from the low and then east over east Texas and south
Louisiana about 50 nm inland from the Gulf Coast. Numerous showers
cover much of Texas and northern Louisiana. Most of the activity
is over land at this time with only isolated showers over the Gulf
west of 96.5W from 23N-28N.

The low pressure over south Texas will slowly strengthen today
while moving little. The low will then track eastward along the
northern U.S. Gulf Coast tonight through Saturday night with
strong to near gale southerly winds ahead of a trailing cold
front, mainly N of 26N. Fresh to strong winds will follow behind
the front across the Gulf Sat night through Sun night, with gale
force winds possible over the SW Gulf Sun. The cold front will
shift E of the Gulf waters Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dissipating stationary front extends from eastern Cuba near
20N78W to the northwest Caribbean near 19N86W with no significant
convection in the area. Upper-level anticyclonic flow covers the
western Caribbean. Total precipitable water imagery shows an area
of enhanced moisture moving westward over western Caribbean near
the E coast of Central America. Scattered moderate convection is
seen near the E coast of Nicaragua and over eastern Nicaragua and
eastern Honduras. A small area of scattered moderate convection is
near and within 60 nm of Chetumal Mexico. In the SE Caribbean,
isolated showers are near Trinidad, as mid-upper level SE winds
are transporting some moisture northwestward from the ITCZ.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the S central
Caribbean through Tue night, pulsing to near gale off the coast
of Colombia through tonight. A cold front will move into the
Yucatan Channel Sun night. The front will continue eastward,
extending from near the Windward Passage to near the
Honduras/Nicaragua border by Tue night. Fresh to strong winds
behind the front will affect the waters off the Yucatan Peninsula,
Belize and Honduras Mon night through Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from the central Atlantic near 32N51W to
30.5N54W. The front is stationary from that point to eastern Cuba
near 20N78W. Scattered showers are noted within 60 nm of the front
between 53W-65W, with isolated showers possible along the front
from 65W to the SE Bahamas to Cuba. In the eastern portion of the
basin, a surface trough is analyzed from 24N25W to 19N30W. Water
vapor imagery shows a potent and persistent upper-level low
centered near 26N26W. Scattered showers are seen from 23N-32N
between 15W-27W.

The stationary front from 25N65W to eastern Cuba will linger
today, then dissipate Sat. A developing low pres system over the
southern U.S. will drag a strong cold front off the coast of
northern Florida on Sun morning. Gale conditions are possible N of
28N ahead of the front in the southerly flow through Mon. Another
low pres system may develop off the Carolinas Mon night
potentially significantly impacting the waters N of Grand Bahama
through the middle of the week.

Meteo France mentions the possibility of strong to near gale
force winds tonight and Saturday in the area from 25N-30N between
22W-28W. These winds will result from a strong high pressure to
the north of that area and a trough of low pressure just to the
southwest.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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