[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071112
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
611 AM EST Fri Dec 7 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N14W
to 07N21W. The ITCZ extends from 07N21W to 00N50W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 00N-07N between 25W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge prevails across the basin anchored by a 1028 mb
high centered over west Atlantic near 31N75W. Moderate to fresh
winds are noted across the western half of the basin, while
moderate winds prevail east of 90W.

Moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow across the western portion of
the basin will increase to strong in the northwest Gulf tonight
ahead of an intense low pressure system that will develop over
southeast Texas. The low will track eastward along the U.S. Gulf
coast this weekend with strong to near-gale southerly winds
expected ahead of a trailing cold front, particularly in the
northern Gulf. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front
through Sunday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dissipating stationary front extends from eastern Cuba near
20N78W to the northwest Caribbean near 19N86W. Scattered showers
are noted along the front near the east coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Elsewhere, scattered showers prevail across the eastern
Caribbean waters mainly east of 72W.

The front will dissipate this morning. Fresh to locally strong
northeast winds are expected over central Cuba adjacent waters
through the morning hours also. Trade winds in the south-central
Caribbean will increase through the weekend, pulsing to near-
gale north of Colombia near 12N75W at night. A cold front will
reach the Yucatan Channel Sunday night, reaching from near the
Windward Passage to western Jamaica to near the Honduras/
Nicaragua border by early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from the central Atlantic near 31N53W to
25N63W. The front becomes stationary from that point to 21N76W.
Scattered showers are noted along the cold front. Surface ridging
prevails across the remainder of the basin.

The cold front over the central Atlantic will stall this morning
and dissipate through the weekend. A developing intense low
pressure system over the southern U.S.A. this weekend will drag a
strong cold front off the coast of northern Florida on Sunday
morning. Gale conditions are possible north of 28N ahead of the
front in the southerly flow.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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