[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070527
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1227 AM EST Fri Dec 7 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 09N14W
to 06N21W. The ITCZ extends from 06N21W to 03N50W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 02N-07N between 22W-48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge prevails across the basin anchored by a 1030 mb
high centered over southeast U.S.A. near 32N85W. Moderate to fresh
winds are noted across the western half of the basin, while
moderate winds prevail east of 90W.

Moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow across the western portion of
the basin will increase to strong in the NW Gulf on Fri night
ahead of an intense low pressure system that will develop over SE
Texas. The low will track eastward along the U.S. Gulf coast this
weekend with strong to near-gale southerly winds expected ahead of
a trailing cold front, particularly in the northern Gulf,
including the coastal waters. Fresh to strong winds will follow
the front through Sunday night. Moderate to fresh northerly winds
will dominate the Gulf waters on Monday, diminishing across
western portions on Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dissipating stationary front extends from eastern Cuba near
20N78W to the northwest Caribbean near 19N86W. Scattered showers
are noted along the front near the east coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Elsewhere, scattered showers prevail across the eastern
Caribbean mainly east of 72W.

The front will dissipate tonight. Fresh to locally strong
northeast winds are expected over central Cuba adjacent waters
through Friday morning. Trade winds in the south-central
Caribbean will increase tonight through the weekend, pulsing to
near-gale north of Colombia near 12N75W at night. A cold front
will reach the Yucatan Channel Sunday night, reaching from near
the Windward Passage to western Jamaica to near the Honduras/
Nicaragua border by early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from the central Atlantic near 32N53W to
25N64W. The front becomes stationary from that point to 21N75W.
Scattered showers are noted along the cold front. To the east, a
1016 mb low is over the east Atlantic near 21N28W with scattered
showers. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the
basin, anchored by a 1030 mb high centered near 32N38W.

The cold front over the central Atlantic will stall this morning
and dissipate by late Saturday. A developing intense low pressure
system over the southern U.S. this weekend will drag a strong
cold front off the coast of northern Florida on Sunday morning.
Gale conditions are possible north of 28N ahead of the front in
the southerly flow.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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