[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
704 PM EST Thu Dec 6 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
to 04N13W. The ITCZ extends from 06N10W to 02N20W to 02N40W to the
coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Widely scattered moderate convection
is from 01N-07N between 08W-20W, and from 02N-08N between 30W-57W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1030 mb high is centered over Alabama near 32N87W. 10-15 kt E to
SE surface winds are over the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered to broken
low level clouds are over most of the Gulf W of 85W. Radar imagery
shows the Gulf is void of convection.

In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Gulf with axis along 91W.
Scattered high clouds are also over the NW Gulf N of 26N and W of
90W.

Moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow across the basin
will increase to strong in the NW Gulf on Fri night ahead of an
intense low pressure system that will develop over SE Texas on
Fri. The low will track eastward along the U.S. Gulf coast this
weekend with strong to near gale southerly winds expected ahead of
a trailing cold front, particularly in the northern Gulf,
including the coastal waters. Fresh to strong winds will follow
the front Sat night through Sun night. Moderate to fresh northerly
winds will dominate the Gulf waters on Mon, diminishing across
western portions Tue and Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dissipating stationary front extends from eastern Cuba near
21N75W to the NW Caribbean near 20N85W. Scattered showers are
noted along the front near the east coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Elsewhere, scattered showers are over the Windward
Islands. Scattered showers are also inland over Central America
from Belize to Panama.

In the upper levels, a ridge is over the W Caribbean W of 75W. A
trough is over the E Caribbean with axis along 70W. Strong
subsidence is over the central and eastern Caribbean.

The front will fully dissipate tonight. Fresh to locally strong
NE winds are expected over central Cuba adjacent waters through
Fri morning. Trade winds in the S central and in the SW Caribbean
will increase tonight through Tue night, pulsing to near Gale NW
of Colombia near 12N75W at night. Moderate to fresh trades will
continue E of the Lesser Antilles through early next week. A cold
front will reach the Yucatan Channel Sun night, reaching from near
the Windward Passage to western Jamaica to near the Honduras/
Nicaragua border by late Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from the central Atlantic near 32N55W to
22N70W to E Cuba near 21N75W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 25N-28N between 61W-64W. Scattered showers are
elsewhere within 45 nm of the front. Broken low clouds are W of
front to 80W. Elsewhere, a 1015 mb low is over the E Atlantic near
23N28W. Scattered showers are within 300 nm of the center.

The cold front over the central Atlantic will stall Fri morning
and dissipate late Sat. A developing intense low pressure system
over the southern U.S. this weekend will drag a strong cold front
off the coast of northern Florida on Sun morning. Gale conditions
are possible north of 28N ahead of the front in the southerly
flow.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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