[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061735
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1235 PM EST Thu Dec 6 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ extends across the coast of Liberia near 05N10W and
continues across the Atlantic to 05N17W to 02N22W to 02N41W to the
coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Numerous moderate with isolated
strong convection is present from 00N-08N between 06W-20W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen from 00N-07N between 20W and
the coast of South America.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Moist upper-level flow originating from the tropical east Pacific
is enhancing scattered showers over Texas between Houston and
Corpus Christi. Some of the shower activity could spill over into
the Gulf waters today near the coast of Texas. A surface trough
is over the SW Gulf from 19N95W to 21N97W. Isolated showers are
possible near the trough. Elsewhere in the Gulf, surface ridging
dominates, eminating from a 1030 mb high over the SE United
States. Fresh E to SE winds cover much of the southern and western
Gulf.

Moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow across the basin will
increase to fresh to strong in the NW Gulf on Fri night ahead of
an intense low pressure system that will develop over SE Texas on
Fri. The low will track eastward along the U.S. Gulf Coast this
weekend with strong to near gale southerly winds expected ahead of
the cold front, particularly in the northern Gulf, including the
coastal waters. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front Sat
night through Sun night. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will
dominate the Gulf waters on Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from eastern Cuba near 21N77W to 20N81.5W,
continuing from there as a stationary front to the Yucatan
Peninsula near 19N90W. Scattered showers are noted along the
front near the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Elsewhere,
near the front, isolated showers are noted. Isolated showers are
also seen just NW of Jamaica, in the Gulf of Honduras and near
the ABC islands. Elsewhere across the central and eastern
Caribbean, relatively dry air covers the basin.

The front in the NW Caribbean will dissipate tonight. Fresh to
locally strong NE winds are expected over central Cuba and
adjacent waters through Fri morning. Fresh to strong trades are
expected in the south central Caribbean through Saturday night,
with the strongest winds over the waters north of Colombia. A cold
front will reach the Yucatan Channel Sun evening.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 32N59W to
24N70W to eastern Cuba near 21N77W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted along and within 120 nm SE of the front N of 25N.
Scattered showers are seen along and within 60 nm ahead of the
front from the SE Bahamas to 25N. Scatterometer data depicts
fresh to locally strong N to NE winds north of the front.

An deep-layered occluded low is in the vicinity of 24N-28N and
23W-28W. The upper-level low is centered near 27N25W, and a 1015
mb surface low is analyzed near 24N28W. A dissipating occluded
front and dissipating cold front wrap around to the east and south
of the low. Scattered moderate convection is observed on the east
side of this low from 24N-32N between 14W-23W. Surface ridging
prevails across the central portion of the basin, in between the
low and the aforementioned front.

The cold front over the west Atlantic will stall Fri morning and
dissipate late Sat. A developing intense low pressure system over
the southern U.S. this weekend will drag a strong cold front off
the coast of northern Florida on Sun morning. Gale conditions are
possible north of 28N ahead of the front in the southerly flow.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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