[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061117
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
617 AM EST Thu Dec 6 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends across the coast of Africa near 08N13W
then continues across the east Atlantic to near 06N16W. The ITCZ
continues from that point to 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection
is present within 210 nm on either side of both axes.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure dominates the basin centered inland near 34N88W.
Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong northerly winds
south of 27N and east of 90W while moderate to fresh winds
prevail elsewhere. A surface trough is noted near the coast over
the Bay of Campeche from 22N97W to 19N95W. Fresh to strong winds
are noted in the vicinity of this trough mainly south of 20N.

Surface ridging will prevail across the basin through the end of
the week. Southerly return flow will strengthen by Friday night
as a low pressure system develops over southeast Texas. This low
will track eastward along the U.S. Gulf coast this weekend, with
strong to near-gale southerly winds expected ahead of its
associated cold front, across the northwest Gulf waters.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends across the northwestern portion of the basin
from 22N80W to 19N87W. Scattered showers are noted along the front.
Scattered trade wind showers prevail across the eastern Caribbean
mainly east of 75W. Relatively dry air continues to dominate the
remainder of the Caribbean.

The cold front will stall and weaken from eastern Cuba to
Honduras today. High pressure in the wake of the front will bring
fresh to locally strong northeasterly winds in the lee of Cuba
across the approach to the Yucatan Channel and offshore of the
eastern Yucatan through Friday morning. Fresh to strong trades are
expected in the south central Caribbean through Saturday night,
with the strongest winds over the waters north of Colombia.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N63W to
22N78W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 75 nm south
of the front between 60W-72W. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to
strong northerly winds north of the front.

Further east, a 1015 mb surface low is analyzed near 25N29W.
A 1014 mb surface low is to the east of it near 28N24W. A cold
front extends from the low to 20N25W to 17N35W, then becomes
stationary from that point to 18N45W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed near this low north of 24N between 15W-
23W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin.

The front over the west Atlantic continue moving east through the
end of the week. Fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front
will diminish this morning while the front stalls and weakens
through Saturday. A developing low pressure system across the
southern U.S. this weekend will drag a strong cold front off the
coast of northern Florida on Sunday. Gale conditions are possible
across the west Atlantic ahead of the front in the southerly flow.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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