[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060538
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1238 AM EST Thu Dec 6 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends across the coast of Africa near 08N13W
then continues across the east Atlantic to near 07N17W. The ITCZ
continues from that point to 00N43W. Scattered moderate convection
is present within 210 nm on either side of the axis between 12W-
32W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the southern portion of the basin from
23N80W to 20N93W. Scattered showers are noted along and within 80
nm ahead of the front. High pressure dominates the remainder of
the basin centered near 32N89W. Latest scatterometer data depicts
fresh to strong northerly winds south of 27N while moderate to
fresh winds prevail elsewhere. A surface trough is noted near the
coast over the Bay of Campeche from 22N98W to 20N95W with
scattered showers.

The cold front will exit the basin tonight. Southerly return flow
will strengthen by Friday night as a low pressure system develops
over southeast Texas. This low will track eastward along the U.S.
Gulf coast this weekend, with strong to near-gale southerly winds
expected ahead of the next cold front, particularly across the
northwest Gulf waters.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front is entering the northwestern portion of the basin
over the Yucatan Channel with scattered showers. Scattered trade
wind showers noted across the eastern Caribbean mainly east of
75W. Relatively dry air continues to dominate the remainder of the
Caribbean.

The cold front will drop south tonight, then stall and weaken
from eastern Cuba to northern Honduras today. High pressure in
the wake of the front will bring fresh to locally strong
northeasterly winds in the lee of Cuba across the approach to the
Yucatan Channel and offshore of the eastern Yucatan through Friday
morning. Fresh to strong trades are expected in the south central
Caribbean tonight through Saturday night, with the strongest
winds over the waters north of Colombia.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N63W to the
Straits of Florida and the west Cuba near 23N80W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 80 nm south of the front
between 60W-70W. A secondary cold front extends from 31N71W to
28N77W. No significant convection is associated with this front.
A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong northerly winds north
of this front.

Further east near the Canary Islands, a 1014 mb surface low is
centered near 27N25W. A cold front extends from 21N25W to 18N32W,
then becomes stationary from that point to 18N45W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed near the low north of 24N between
17W-27W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the
basin.

The fronts over the west Atlantic will merge tonight. Fresh to
strong northerly winds behind the front will diminish this
morning while the front stalls and weakens through Saturday. A
developing low pressure system across the southern U.S. this
weekend will drag a strong cold front off the coast of northern
Florida on Sunday. Gale conditions are possible across the
west Atlantic ahead of the front in the southerly flow.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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