[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052353
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
653 PM EST Wed Dec 5 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ moves off the west coast of Liberia near 06N10W and
continues to 03N26W to 00N47W. Scattered to numerous moderate
with embedded isolated strong convection is present near and
within 210 nm south of the axis between 11W-37W. Between 09W-
16W, similar convection is noted within the proximity of the
ITCZ and near the coast of Africa.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the basin from the Straits of Florida
to near the Yucatan Channel into the Bay of Campeche near 20N93W.
Scattered showers are noted along and within 80 nm ahead of the
front from the Florida Straits to near the Yucatan Channel to near
the N coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. High pressure has filtered
in over the northern and central Gulf with latest scatterometer
data showing fresh to strong winds south of 27N between 86W to 92W
behind the front. A surface trough is noted near the coast of
Mexico from 22N97W to 19N94W with scattered moderate convection
in the vicinity of the trough south of 20N between 91W to 93W.

A cold front extending from the Straits of Florida to near the
Yucatan Channel will completely push SE of the area tonight.
Southerly return flow will strengthen Fri night as a low pressure
system develops over SE Texas. This low will track eastward along
the U.S. Gulf coast this weekend, with strong to near gale S to SW
winds expected ahead of the cold front, particularly across the
northern Gulf including the coastal waters.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from western Cuba to the Yucatan Channel to
the northern Yucatan peninsula will drop tonight. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms extend 90 nm ahead of the cold
front. Elsewhere, scattered trade wind showers are near the ABC
Islands. Isolated showers are near eastern Cuba, and Puerto Rico
and the waters south of Puerto Rico, north of 16N. Despite the
weak showers, relatively dry air continues to dominate Caribbean
Sea, with the notable exception of the NW Caribbean, marked by the
approaching front.

The cold front will drop S tonight, then stall and weaken from
eastern Cuba to northern Honduras on Thu. High pres in the wake of
the front will bring fresh to locally strong NE winds in the lee
of Cuba across the approach to the Yucatan Channel and offshore of
the eastern Yucatan through Fri morning. Fresh to strong trades
are expected in the S central Caribbean tonight through Sat night,
with the strongest winds, near Gale force, NW of northern Colombia.
Moderate to fresh trades will continue E of the Lesser Antilles
through the weekend. Another cold front will push SE across the
Yucatan Channel early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 30N64W to the
Straits of Florida and the west Cuba near 23N82W. Scattered to
moderate convection is noted along and within 80 to 60 nm north
and south of the front south of 31N. A secondary developing cold
front is near 30N74W to 28N77W extending from a 1010 mb low near
33N73W. No significant convection is associated with this front.
A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong WNW winds north of this
front.

Further east near the Canary Islands, a 1014 mb low is analyzed
near 27N24W with a cold front extending from the low to 27N22W to
19N31W, stationary to 18N45W. A warm front extends NE from the
low to 31N22W. A trough extends from the low 27N27W to 30N28W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed near the low south of
29N between 22W-24W. A 1024 mb high is centered near 31N37W. The
high extends its surface ridge axis to 26N49W.

The secondary cold front will merge tonight with a reinforcing
cold front which currently extends from 31N74W to 28N79W. Fresh to
strong northerly winds behind the reinforcing front will diminish
Thu morning while the front stalls and weakens Thu night through
Sat. A developing low pressure system across the southern U.S.
this weekend will drag a strong cold front off the coast of
northern Florida on Sun. Gale conditions are possible across the
northern portion ahead of the front in the southerly flow.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MTorres
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