[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051742
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1242 PM EST Wed Dec 5 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ moves off the west coast of Liberia near 06N11W and
continues to 05N20W to 04N33W to 01N40W to 00N47W. Scattered to
numerous moderate with embedded isolated strong convection is
present near and within 210 nm south of the axis between 11W-20W.
Between 20W-46W, similar convection is noted within 240 nm north
and within 90 nm south of the axis.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the basin from the southern tip of the
Florida Peninsula near 25N81W to 22N89W to 19N92.5W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted along and within 90
nm ahead of the front from the Florida Straits to near the Yucatan
Channel to near the N coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are also present in the eastern
and central Bay of Campeche. High pressure has filtered in behind
the front across the northern and central Gulf.

The cold front will move SE of the area late today. Strong high
pressure behind the front will support fresh to strong northerly
flow across the basin today. Southerly return flow will strengthen
Fri night as a low pressure system develops over SE Texas. This
low will track eastward along the U.S. Gulf coast this weekend,
with strong to near gale S to SW winds expected ahead of the cold
front, particularly across the NW and north-central Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from the southern tip of Florida near 25N81W
to 22N89W to 19N92.5W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms extend from the Yucatan Channel to the cold front.
Elsewhere, scattered trade wind showers are near the ABC Islands.
Isolated showers are near Puerto Rico and the waters south of
Puerto Rico, north of 16N. Despite the weak showers, relatively
dry air continues to dominate Caribbean Sea, with the notable
exception of the NW Caribbean, marked by the approaching front.

The cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will reach the NW Caribbean
late today, then stall and weaken from eastern Cuba to northern
Honduras on Thu. High pressure in the wake of the front will
bring fresh to locally strong NE winds in the lee of Cuba tonight
into Thu morning. Fresh to strong trades are expected to continue in
the south-central Caribbean tonight through Sat night, with the
strongest winds near the coast of Colombia.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 32N60W to
29N70W to the southern tip of the Florida Peninsula near 25N81W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted near and
within 120 nm south of the front. A secondary developing cold
front has been added to the map extending from a 1013 mb low near
33N74.5W to 30N77W to 28N80W. No significant convection is
associated with this front. However, a recent ASCAT pass shows
stronger WNW winds north of this front. To the east, a 1014 mb low
is analyzed near 28N25W with a cold front extending from the low
to 25N23W to 20N34W, stationary to 19N48W. A warm front extends NE
from the low to 31N23W. Scattered moderate convection is observed
with the low from 24N-30N between 20W-25W. Elsewhere from 23N-33N
between 16W-26W, scattered showers are noted. A 1023 mb high is
centered near 31N37W. The high extends its surface ridge axis to
26N51W to 25N66W.

The cold front in the west Atlantic that extends from 32N60W to
25N81W will reach from 30N65W across the Bahamas to central Cuba
tonight. Reinforcing cold air will support fresh N-NW winds
behind the front through Thu morning. The front will stall and
weaken Thu night through Sat. A developing low pressure system
across the southern U.S. will drag a strong cold front off the
coast of northern Florida on Sun. At that time, gale conditions
are possible ahead of the front in the southerly flow.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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