[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051121
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
621 AM EST Wed Dec 5 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 08N13W to
06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to 00N47W. Scattered to
numerous moderate convection is present from 08N southward
between 29W-45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the basin from 26N82W to 22N92W to
18N93W. A pre-frontal trough extends across southern Florida
and the eastern Gulf waters along 24N and east of 90W. Scattered
showers are noted along the front and trough.

Strong high pressure behind the front will support fresh to
strong northerly flow across the basin today. Return flow will
dominate the area by the end of the week ahead of the next cold
front, which will move through northern portion of the basin this
weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Dry air continues to dominate across the basin, with only low
topped showers moving quickly across the eastern half of the
basin affecting the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.
A 1021 mb high pressure centered to the north of the region is
leading to fresh to strong easterly trades, especially across the
central portion of the Caribbean, including near the coast of
Colombia.

Fresh to strong trade winds continue in the south central
Caribbean, with the fastest wind speeds near the coast of
Colombia. A cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will reach the
northwest Caribbean late tonight, then stall and weaken from
eastern Cuba to northern Honduras on Thursday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N68W to
27N80W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 27N76W to 26N80W.
Scattered showers are noted within 60 nm south of the front and
trough. To the east, another cold front is over the eastern
Atlantic, extending from a 1015 mb low centered near 31N22W. The
front is from the low to 19N35W to 19N55W. Scattered showers are
observed with the low.

The cold front in the west Atlantic will reach from 30N65W to
Straits of Florida today. A reinforcing push of cold air will
support fresh northerly winds behind the front this afternoon
through Thursday morning. The front will reach from 28N65W to the
SE Bahamas on Thursday, then stall and weaken Thursday night
through Saturday. A developing low pressure system across the
southern U.S. will drag a strong cold front off the coast of
northern Florida reaching the west Atlantic on Sunday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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