[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050533
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1233 AM EST Wed Dec 5 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front extends from 27N82W to 23N92W to 17N94W. Strong
high pressure behind the front will support fresh to strong
northerly flow behind the front, with minimal gale-force winds in
the SW Gulf offshore of Veracruz. Seas height will range from 6
to 10 feet. Expect scattered moderate convection along the cold
front in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. These conditions
will weaken tonight. Please read the High Seas Forecast under the
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 07N11W to 06N14W. The ITCZ continues from 06N14W to
03N50W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is present from
07N southward between 30W-52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the section above for information about the Gale
Warning.

A cold front extends across the basin from 27N82W to 23N92W to
17N94W. A pre-frontal trough extends across the Florida Peninsula
and the eastern Gulf waters along 26N and east of 87W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted along the front and trough.

Strong high pressure behind the front will support fresh to
strong northerly flow behind the front, with minimal gale-force
winds in the SW Gulf offshore of Veracruz tonight. Return flow
will dominate the area by the end of the week ahead of the next
cold front which will move through the basin this upcoming
weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Dry air continues to dominate across the basin, with only low
topped showers moving quickly across the eastern half of the
basin affecting the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.
A 1021 mb high pressure centered to the north of the region is
leading to strong easterly trades, especially across the central
portion of the Caribbean, including near the coast of Colombia.

Fresh to strong trade winds continue in the south central
Caribbean, with the fastest wind speeds near the coast of
Colombia. A cold front passing north of the area will cause the
wind speeds to diminish a bit in the central Caribbean today.
Building high pressure following the front will allow fresh to
strong winds to redevelop across the south central Caribbean
from Thursday through Saturday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N69W to
28N80W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 29N75W to 26N80W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted along and within 60 nm
south of the front and trough. To the east, another cold front is
in the eastern Atlantic, passing through 31N22W to 21N32W to
21N54W. Scattered showers are along the front.

The cold front in the west Atlantic will reach from 30N65W to
Straits of Florida in the morning. A reinforcing push of cold air
will support fresh northerly winds behind the front this
afternoon through Thursday morning. The front will reach from
28N65W to the SE Bahamas on Thursday, then stall and weaken
Thursday night through Saturday. The remnants of the front are
expected to lift north this weekend as another cold front moves
across the Gulf of Mexico and enters the west Atlantic by Sunday
night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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