[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
703 PM EST Fri Dec 7 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A low pressure system and cold front will move across the Gulf of
Mexico this weekend. Behind the front, gale force winds along with
seas of 8 to 10 ft are forecast on Sunday in the SW Gulf of
Mexico south of 21N and west of 95W. See the latest High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...ATLC GALE WARNING...

A cold front will enter the Atlantic on Sunday afternoon. A gale
is forecast E of front within area bounded by 31N76W to 30N76W to
30N78W to 30N79W to 31N79W to 31N76W with SW winds 25 to 35 KT.
Seas will be 8 to 13 ft in SW swell. See the latest High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 09N13W
to 09N16W. The ITCZ extends from 09N16W to 03N30W to the coast of
South America near 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is from
00N-06N between 31W-38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A quasi-stationary front is just inland over S Texas. Scattered
moderate convection is over southern and eastern Texas. Similar
convection also extends 60 nm off the Texas and Louisiana coasts. A
forming stationary front is over Florida and the NE Gulf of
Mexico from 28N81W to 28N84W to 30N89W. The Gulf S of the front
has 10-15 kt E to SE surface winds.

In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Gulf with axis along 90W.
Scattered high clouds are also over the NW Gulf N of 26N and W of
90W.

A developing low pressure system over SE Texas will track
eastward along the U.S. Gulf coast this weekend with strong to
near gale southerly winds ahead of a trailing cold front mainly N
of 26N. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front Sat night
through Sun night, with gale force winds possible over the SW gulf
Sun. The cold front will shift E of the gulf waters Sun night with
high pres building in its wake. A reinforcing cold front may move
through the eastern Gulf early next week. Another cold front may
enter the far NW Gulf by mid-week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-25 tradewinds are over the Caribbean with strongest winds along
the coast of N Colombia. Scattered showers are over the SE
Caribbean, Hispaniola, Jamaica, and the Gulf of Honduras. Similar
showers are over Belize, Honduras, and Nicaragua.

In the upper levels, a ridge is over the W Caribbean W of 75W. A
trough is over the E Caribbean with axis along 70W. Strong
subsidence is over the central and eastern Caribbean.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the S
central Caribbean through Wed night, pulsing to near gale off the
coast of Colombia at night. A cold front will move into the
Yucatan Channel Sun afternoon, reaching from near the Windward
Passage to near the Honduras/Nicaragua border by Tue night where
it will stall and dissipate through Wed. Fresh to strong winds
behind the front will affect the waters off the Yucatan Peninsula,
Belize and Honduras Mon night through Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A forming stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 32N75W to
29N81W. A stationary front extends from the central Atlantic near
32N51W to 24N70W. A warm front continues from 24N70W to E Cuba
near 22N77W. Scattered showers are noted within 60 nm of the
front. In the eastern portion of the basin, a surface trough is
analyzed from 25N28W to 18N31W. Water vapor imagery shows a
potent and persistent upper-level low centered near 26N26W.
Scattered showers are seen from 23N-32N between 15W-27W.

The warm front near E Cuba will linger today, then dissipate Sat.
Another stationary front from 31N77W to near Cape Canaveral,
Florida will lift N as a warm front by Sat night. A developing
low pres system over the southern U.S. will drag a strong cold
front off the coast of northern Florida on Sun morning. Gale
conditions are possible N of 28N ahead of the front in the
southerly flow through Mon. Another low pres system may develop
off the Carolinas Mon night potentially significantly impacting
the waters N of Grand Bahama through the middle of the week.

Meteo France mentions the possibility of strong to near gale
force winds tonight and Saturday in the area from 25N-30N between
22W-28W. These winds will result from a strong high pressure to
the north of that area and a trough of low pressure just to the
southwest.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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