[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041034
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
534 AM EST Tue Dec 4 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front currently extends from 28N83W to 21N97W. The front
will reach from southwest Florida to the central Bay of Campeche
by this morning. Strong high pressure in the wake of the front
will bring fresh to strong northerly winds to much of the western
and central Gulf today. Winds will reach gale-force near Veracruz
by tonight through early Wednesday. Please refer to the High Seas
Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends over Africa reaching the east Atlantic
waters near 06N10W. The ITCZ begins from that point to 04N24W to
03N38W. A 1007 mb surface low is centered near 03N48W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted along and in the
vicinity of the ITCZ/low mainly west of 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the section above for information about the Gale
Warning for today.

A cold front passes through northern Florida near 28N83W to
21N97W. Scattered showers are noted along the front. Scatterometer
data depicts moderate to fresh winds across the western portion
of the basin, while gentle to moderate winds prevail east of 90W.

The cold front will continue moving southeastward across the Gulf
waters reaching from central Florida to the central Bay of
Campeche this morning. Strong high pressure in the wake of the
front will bring fresh to strong northerly winds to much of the
western and central Gulf today. With this, gale-force winds are
expected near Veracruz by tonight through early Wednesday. The front
will extend from southern Florida to 23N90W tonight, then move
southeast of the area by late Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Dry air continues to dominate the basin, with only low topped
showers moving quickly across the eastern half of the basin.
A surface trough is analyzed over the Leeward Islands from 21N63W
to 17N63W. A 1022 mb high pressure centered to the north of the
region is leading to strong easterly trades, especially across the
central portion of the Caribbean, including near the coast of
Colombia.

Expect for the surface high to continue supporting fresh to
strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean through tonight.
A cold front passing to the north of the area will weaken the
pressure gradient allowing for winds to diminish over the central
part of the Caribbean by mid-week. Strong high pressure in the
wake of the front will bring again fresh to strong winds across
the south-central Caribbean through Friday night. Moderate to
fresh trades are expected over the waters east of the Lesser
Antilles through the forecast period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N76W to 29N81W with scattered
moderate convection noted ahead of it mainly north of 29N and
west of 70W. To the east, another cold front is in the central
Atlantic, passing through 31N25W to 22N36W to 23N54W. Scattered
showers are observed along the front. Surface ridging prevails
elsewhere.

High pressure over the central Atlantic will shift eastward
through Wednesday in response to a cold front that is presently
moving offshore the SE United States. The cold front will reach
from near 30N66W to southern Florida by tonight, and from near
30N65W to the Straits of Florida on Wednesday morning. A second
push of cold air will support fresh to locally strong winds behind
the front through Thursday morning. The cold front will reach
from near 28N65W to the SE Bahamas and to eastern Cuba early
Thursday, and begin to weaken over the far southeastern waters
through the weekend as it transitions into a trough.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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