[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041742
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1242 PM EST Tue Dec 4 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front is passing through 32N70W in the Atlantic Ocean, to
Florida about 30 NM to the NW of Lake Okeechobee, to 24N90W near
the central Gulf of Mexico, and curving southwestward to the
northern coast of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico,
and curving inland northwestward to 21N98W. A stationary front
continues inland even more, to 27N102W. The 12-hour forecast,
from the 04/1200 UTC forecast, consists of: the cold front from
26N82W to 23N90W to 22N92W to 18.5N93W. Expect NW to N winds
GALE-FORCE winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet,
S of 21N W of the cold front. ELSEWHERE NW of the cold front:
S of 28N W of 85W N to NE WINDS 20 to 30 knots. Sea heights will
range from 8 feet to 10 feet. Expect scattered rainshowers with
thunder along the cold front in the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico. It is possible that the wind speeds and the sea heights
may be higher near the areas of precipitation. Please read the
High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to
03N30W and 02N40W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 07N southward between 38W and 52W. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are mainly
from 02N to 06N between 30W and 37W. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front cuts across Florida, about 30 NM to the NW of Lake
Okeechobee, to 24N90W near the central Gulf of Mexico, and it
curves southwestward to the northern coast of the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, and then it curves inland
northwestward to 21N98W. A stationary front continues inland even
more, to 27N102W in Mexico. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are within 60 nm to 90 nm on either side of the line
that runs from 27N80W in SE Florida, to 26N84W 24N89W 21N92W and
18N94W at the northern coast of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico. Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more
details about the GALE-FORCE winds that are expected in the SW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico later tonight.

The current cold front will reach from SW Florida to the eastern
Bay of Campeche later today. Strong high pressure that is behind
the front will induce fresh to strong northerly winds for much of
the western and central Gulf of Mexico today, with winds reaching
minimal gale force near Veracruz overnight. The front will extend
from SE Florida to just N of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight, and
then move SE of the area by late Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Dry air prevails across most of the area, with only low topped
showers moving quickly across the eastern half of the basin.
Upper-level anticyclonic flow covers the basin. High pressure to
the north of the region is leading to strong easterly trades,
especially across the central portion of the Caribbean, including
near the coast of Colombia.

Rainshowers are possible across the Caribbean Sea, in clusters of
broken low level and middle level clouds, across much of the
Caribbean Sea. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the
period that ended at 03/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are
0.09 in Guadeloupe, 0.07 in Trinidad, 0.05 in San Juan in Puerto
Rico, 0.03 in Montego Bay in Jamaica, and 0.01 in St. Thomas in
the Virgin Islands.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N, from 74W in Colombia across
southern sections of Panama, beyond the southernmost part of Costa
Rica. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 11N southward from
75W westward.

Fresh to strong trade winds continue in the south central
Caribbean Sea, with the fastest wind speeds near the coast of
Colombia. A cold front passing N of the area will cause the wind
speeds to diminish a bit in the central Caribbean Sea on Wednesday.
Building high pressure following the front will allow fresh to
strong winds to redevelop across the south central Caribbean Sea
from Thursday through Saturday night. Moderate to fresh trade winds
will prevail E of the Lesser Antilles during most of the forecast
period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N70W in the Atlantic Ocean, to
Florida about 30 NM to the NW of Lake Okeechobee, and beyond,
toward the central Gulf of Mexico. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are within 60 nm to 90 nm on either
side of the line that runs from 26N81W near Lake Okeechobee in
Florida, to 29N75W, beyond 32N69W in the Atlantic Ocean.

A second cold front is in the eastern Atlantic Ocean, passing
through 32N23W to 24N30W 21N40W 20N45W, and 23N54W. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 60 nm
on either side of the line that runs from 28N26W beyond 32N24W.
Broken to overcast low level and middle level clouds and possible
rainshowers are elsewhere from 20N northward between 20W and 60W.

The current cold front will reach from 31N66W to SE Florida
tonight, and from 30N65W to Straits of Florida on Wednesday
morning. A reinforcing push of cold air will support fresh N-NW
winds behind the front from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
morning. The front will reach from 28N65W to the SE Bahamas on
Thursday, and then stall and weaken from Thursday night through
Saturday. The remnants of the front are expected to move N on
Saturday night and Sunday, as another cold front moves across the
Gulf of Mexico.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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