[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040531
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1231 AM EST Tue Dec 4 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front currently extends from 29N83W to 21N97W. The front
will reach from near Tampa Bay to central Gulf near 25N90W to
near Veracruz, Mexico late tonight, and from central Florida to
the central Bay of Campeche by Tuesday morning. Strong high
pressure in the wake of the front will bring fresh to strong
northerly winds to much of the western and central Gulf beginning
early on Tuesday. Winds will reach gale-force near Veracruz by
Tuesday night through early Wednesday. Please refer to the High
Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends over Africa reaching the east Atlantic
waters near 07N11W to 06N13W. The ITCZ begins from that point to
03N32W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted along and in the vicinity of the ITCZ mainly west of
40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the section above for information about the Gale
Warning expected within the next 24 hours.

A cold front passes through northern Florida near 29N83W to 24N94W
to 21N97W. Scattered showers are noted along the front.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh winds across the
western portion of the basin, while gentle to moderate winds
prevail east of 90W.

A cold front will continue moving southeastward across the Gulf
reaching from near Tampa Bay to central Gulf near 25N90W to near
Veracruz, Mexico late tonight, and from central Florida to the
central Bay of Campeche by Tuesday morning. Strong high pressure
in the wake of the front will bring fresh to strong northerly
winds to much of the western and central Gulf beginning early on
Tuesday. With this, gale-force winds are expected near Veracruz
by Tuesday night through early Wednesday. The front is forecast
to extend from southern Florida to the south-central Gulf near
23N90W to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Tuesday night, and then move
southeast of the area by Wednesday evening. High pressure in the
wake of the front will slide eastward across the Gulf through
early this weekend as the next cold front approaches.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Dry air continues to dominate the basin, with only low topped
showers moving quickly across the eastern half of the basin.
A 1024 mb high pressure centered to the north of the region is
leading to strong easterly trades, especially across the central
portion of the Caribbean, including near the coast of Colombia.

Expect for the surface high to continue supporting fresh to
strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean through late
Tuesday. A cold front passing to the north of the area will weaken
the pressure gradient allowing for winds to diminish over the
central part of the Caribbean by mid-week. Strong high pressure in
the wake of the front will bring again fresh to strong winds
across the south-central Caribbean through Friday night. Moderate
to fresh trades are expected over the waters east of the Lesser
Antilles through the forecast period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N79W to 30N81W with scattered moderate
convection noted ahead of it mainly north of 28N and west of 70W.
To the east, another cold front is in the central Atlantic Ocean,
passing through 31N27W to 23N38W to 24N55W. Scattered showers are
observed along the front. Surface ridging prevails elsewhere.

High pressure over the central Atlantic will shift eastward
through Wednesday in response to a cold front that is presently
moving offshore the SE United States. The cold front will reach
from near 31N73W to Melbourne by early Tuesday, from near 30N66W
to southern Florida by Tuesday night, and from near 30N65W to the
Straits of Florida on Wednesday morning. A second push of cold
air will support fresh to locally strong winds behind the front
through Thu morning. The cold front will reach from near 28N65W
to the SE Bahamas and to eastern Cuba early Thursday, and begin
to weaken over the far southeastern waters through the weekend
as it transitions into a trough.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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