[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032356
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
656 PM EST Mon Dec 3 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A cold front extending from Apalachee Bay to 27N90W and to Veracruz,
Mexico will move southeastward across the Gulf reaching from near
Tampa Bay to central Gulf near 25N90W to near Veracruz, Mexico
late tonight, and from central Florida to the central Bay of
Campeche by Tue morning. Strong high pressure in the wake of the
front will bring fresh to strong northerly winds to much of the
western and central Gulf beginning early on Tue. Winds could reach
minimal gale force near Veracruz by Tue night and last into early
Wed. The front is forecast to extend from southern Florida to the
south-central Gulf near 23N90W to the eastern Bay of Campeche by
Tue night, and move southeast of the area by Wed evening. High
pressure in its wake will slide eastward across the Gulf through
Sat as another cold front moves across the north- central and
western Gulf. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product
under AWIPS/WMO headers HSTAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland in Africa. The ITCZ passes
through the coastal areas of Liberia near 06N11W, to 01N34W,to
01N49W near the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is present along the ITCZ from 01N to 08N
between 34W to 48W. Elsewhere, scattered showers are present
in the proximity of the ITCZ from 08N southward from 18W to 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through the Florida Big Bend, into the north
central Gulf of Mexico, TO just off the coast of SE Louisiana, to
21N97W south of Tampico. Scattered moderate to locally strong
convection is developing 80 nm ahead of the front from 29N83W to
27N88W. Scattered showers are also noted further southeast 25N
between 84W to 85W.

A cold front will move southeastward across the Gulf reaching
from near Tampa Bay to central Gulf near 25N90W to near Veracruz,
Mexico late tonight, and from central Florida to the central Bay
of Campeche by Tue morning. Strong high pressure in the wake of
the front will bring fresh to strong northerly winds to much of
the western and central Gulf beginning early on Tue. Winds could
reach minimal gale force near Veracruz by Tue night and last into
early Wed. The front is forecast to extend from southern Florida
to the south-central Gulf near 23N90W to the eastern Bay of
Campeche by Tue night, and move southeast of the area by Wed
evening. High pressure in its wake will slide eastward across the
Gulf through Sat as another cold front moves across the north-
central and western Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Dry air prevails across most of the area, with only low topped
showers moving quickly across the eastern half of the basin.
Upper-level anticyclonic flow covers the basin. High pressure to
the north of the region is leading to strong easterly trades,
especially across the central portion of the Caribbean, including
near the coast of Colombia.

1024 mb surface high pressure to the NE of the area, will support
fresh to strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea
through Tuesday night. A cold front passing to the north of the
area will weaken the pressure gradient allowing for winds to
diminish over the central part of the Caribbean on Wed. Strong
high pressure in the wake of the front will bring again fresh to
strong winds across the south-central Caribbean Thu through Fri
night. Moderate to fresh trades will continue over the waters east
of the Lesser Antilles through much of the forecast period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N77W near the South Carolina and
Georgia coast, beyond the Florida Big Bend and into the Gulf of
Mexico. Scattered moderate strong convection are noted from 32N
to 28N between 72W to 79W.

A second cold front is in the central Atlantic Ocean, passing
through 32N30W to 25N36W to 24N54W. Broken to overcast low level
and middle level clouds and possible showers are 180 nm to the
north and northwest of the line from 32N27W to 30N28W.

High pressure over the area will shift eastward through Wed in
response to a cold front that is presently moving offshore the SE
United States. The cold front will reach from near 31N73W to
Melbourne by early Tue, from near near 30N66W to southern Florida
by Tue night, and from near 30N65W to the Straits of Florida on
Wed morning. A second push of cold air will support fresh to
locally strong winds behind the front Wed evening through Thu
morning. The cold front will reach from from near 28N65W to the SE
Bahamas and to eastern Cuba early Thu, and begin to weaken over
the far southeastern waters later on Thu and through Sat as it
transitions to a trough.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
TORRES
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