[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031732
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1232 PM EST Mon Dec 3 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

The 36-hour forecast consists of: a cold front from 27N82W to
24N90W to 22N95W to 18.5N94W. Expect NW-to-N GALE-FORCE winds,
and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet, S of 21N W of
the front. Strong surface high pressure building behind the
current cold front will bring fresh-to-strong northerly winds to
much of the western and central sections of the Gulf of Mexico
beginning early on Tuesday. The wind speeds are expected to reach
minimum gale-force near Veracruz by Tuesday night. Please refer
to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland in Africa. The ITCZ passes
through the coastal areas of Liberia near 07N11W, to 06N15W,
04N25W 02N37W, and to 02N50W near the coast of Brazil. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 02N to 05N
between 37W and 40W, and from 03N to 05N between 42W and 45W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 04N to
07N between 19W and 33W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from
10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through the Florida Big Bend, into the north
central Gulf of Mexico just off the coast of SE Louisiana,
to the Lower Texas Gulf coast. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are from 28N northward between 77W in the Atlantic
Ocean and 90W in the Gulf of Mexico.

The current cold front will move SE across the Gulf of Mexico
waters, reaching from Tampa Bay to the central Gulf of Mexico
near 25N90W to near Veracruz, Mexico tonight, and from central
Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by Tuesday morning. Strong
high pressure in the wake of the front will bring fresh to strong
northerly winds to much of the western and central Gulf beginning
early on Tuesday. It is possible that the wind speeds may reach
minimal gale force near Veracruz by Tuesday night. The front is
forecast to extend from SE Florida to the south central Gulf of
Mexico near 23N90W to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Tuesday
night, and move SE of the area by late Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Dry air prevails across most of the area, with only low topped
showers moving quickly across the eastern half of the basin.
Upper-level anticyclonic flow covers the basin. High pressure to
the north of the region is leading to strong easterly trades,
especially across the central portion of the Caribbean, including
near the coast of Colombia.

Rainshowers are possible across the Caribbean Sea, in clusters of
broken low level and middle level clouds, nearly everywhere,
except for the area that is from 13N southward between 73W and
80W. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 03/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.09 in
Guadeloupe, 0.07 in Trinidad, 0.05 in San Juan in Puerto Rico,
0.03 in Montego Bay in Jamaica, and 0.01 in St. Thomas in the
Virgin Islands.

The monsoon trough is along 10N from 74W in Colombia beyond the NW
part of Costa Rica. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 12N
southward from 75W westward.

A surface high pressure center, that is to the NE of the area,
will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south central
Caribbean Sea through Tuesday night. A cold front, passing to the
north of the area, will cause the wind speeds to diminish in the
central basin on Wednesday. Strong high pressure that is following
the front will bring fresh to strong winds across the south
central Caribbean Sea, again, from Thursday through Friday night.
Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across the waters E of
the Lesser Antilles during most of the forecast period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N81W near the border of South
Carolina and Georgia, beyond the Florida Big Bend and into the
Gulf of Mexico. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are from 28N northward between 77W in the Atlantic
Ocean and 90W in the Gulf of Mexico.

A second cold front is in the central Atlantic Ocean, passing
through 32N31W to 28N35W to 25N42W and 24N55W. Broken to overcast
low level and middle level clouds and possible rainshowers are to
the north and northwest of the line that passes through 32N26W to
24N32W to 23N60W.

A surface ridge dominates the forecast waters today. The high
pressure will shift eastward, as a cold front enters the area
late today. The front will push SE, and reach from 31N73W to
Melbourne, FL by Tuesday morning, from near 30N66W to SE Florida
by Tuesday night, and from 30N65W to the Straits of Florida on
Wednesday morning. A second push of cold air will support fresh
to locally strong winds behind the front from Wednesday evening
through Thursday morning. The front is forecast to reach from
27N65W across the SE Bahamas to eastern Cuba, on Thursday morning.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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