[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031133
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
633 AM EST Mon Dec 3 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A stationary front is analyzed across the northern Gulf of Mexico
from 30N86W to 25N97W. A reinforcing cold front is already moving
across the Gulf waters extending from 29N92W to 27N97W. This front will
merge with the stationary front today, and extend from central
Florida to near Tampico by Tuesday night, and from Miami to
Veracruz on Wednesday morning. Strong high pressure building
behind this front will bring strong northerly winds to much of the
western and central Gulf beginning early on Tuesday, with winds
expected to reach gale-force near Veracruz by late Tuesday/early
Wednesday. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under
AWIPS/WMO headers HSTAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastline of southern
Sierra Leone near 08N13W and extends to 06N17W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N17W to 02N28W to 00N44W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along the ITCZ between 30W-42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front currently extends across the northern Gulf of
Mexico from the Florida Panhandle near 30N86W to 25N97W. A reinforcing
cold front is already moving across the Gulf waters extending
from 29N92W to 27N97W. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity
of the front mainly north of 29N and east of 89W. Scatterometer
data depicts gentle to moderate southerly winds prevailing over
most of the basin south of the front while light to gentle
northeasterly winds prevail north of the front.

Expect for the cold front to merge with the stationary front by
Monday night. The merged front will then extend from central
Florida to Tampico Tuesday night and from Miami to Veracruz by mid
week. Gale-force winds are expected to develop behind the front
near Veracruz. Refer to the Special Features section above for
details.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Dry air prevails across most of the area, with only low topped
showers moving quickly across the eastern half of the basin.
Upper-level anticyclonic flow covers the basin. High pressure to
the north of the region is leading to strong easterly trades,
especially across the central portion of the Caribbean, including
near the coast of Colombia.

High pressure north of the area will shift to the central
Atlantic on Tuesday, supporting fresh to strong trade winds over
the south-central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. Winds along
the coast of Colombia are expected to be near gale-force today. A
front moving north of the area on Tuesday will allow for winds to
diminish over the central portion of the basin. Strong high
pressure building behind that front will tighten the gradient
again and fresh to strong winds will resume along Colombia by late
Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Strong thunderstorms with strong wind gusts have been occurring
in the Atlantic waters off the Georgia coast tonight. This
activity is being enhanced by strong upper-level diffluence aloft.
Numerous moderate convection is occurring north of 31N and west
of 70W.

To the east, a cold front enters the forecast area near
31N34W to 25N54W. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 29N32W to
23N47W. Scattered showers are noted along the trough and front.
Scatterometer data depicted surface high south of these
boundaries near 24N35W.

A surface ridge will remain over the area east of the Bahamas
through mid-week. Fresh to strong southerly winds will affect the
waters north of 27N and west of 65W through tonight as a cold
front enters the west Atlantic. The front will extend from 31N73W
to Jupiter, Florida by Tuesday at 1200 UTC. By Wednesday morning,
the front will extend from 31N65W to the southern tip of Andros
Island. Strong winds ahead of the front will affect the waters
north of 28N through Tuesday night. A second push of cold air will
support fresh to locally strong winds across the northern waters
on Wednesday night through Thursday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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