[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030534
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1234 AM EST Mon Dec 3 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A stationary front is analyzed across the northern Gulf of Mexico
from 30N85W to a 1006 mb low near 25N96W. On Monday night, a
reinforcing cold front will merge with this front, extending from
central Florida to near Tampico by Tuesday night, and from Miami
to Veracruz on Wednesday morning. Strong high pressure building
behind this front will bring strong northerly winds to much of
the western and central Gulf beginning early on Tuesday, with
winds expected to reach gale-force near Veracruz on Tuesday
night. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under
AWIPS/WMO headers HSTAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastline of southern
Sierra Leone near 07N12W and extends to 07N14W. The ITCZ
continues from 07N15W to 05N25W to 01N44W. A surface trough is
analyzed along 48W from the Equator to 04N. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along the ITCZ between 33W-41W and in the
vicinity of the surface trough between 46W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front currently extends across the northern Gulf of
Mexico from the Florida Panhandle near 30N85W to a 1006 mb
surface low near 25N96W. A line of moderate convection is noted in
the vicinity of the front mainly north of 28N and east of 88W.
Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate southerly winds
prevailing over most of the basin south of the front while
light to gentle northeasterly winds prevail north of the front.

Expect for the front to advance slowly through Monday morning. A
reinforcing cold front will merge with this front by Monday
night. The merged front will then extend from central Florida to
Tampico Tuesday night and from Miami to Veracruz by mid week.
Gale-force winds are expected to develop behind the front near
Veracruz. Refer to the Special Features section above for details.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Dry air prevails across the basin, with little to no significant
convective activity noted. Upper-level anticyclonic flow covers
the basin from 13N-22N between 69W-89W. High pressure to the north
of the region is leading to strong easterly trades, especially
across the central portion of the Caribbean, including near the
coast of Colombia.

High pressure north of the area will shift to the central
Atlantic on Tuesday, supporting fresh to strong trade winds over
the south-central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. Winds along
the coast of Colombia are expected to be near gale-force on Monday.
A front moving north of the area on Tuesday will allow for winds
to diminish over the central portion of the basin. Strong high
pressure building behind that front will tighten the gradient
again and fresh to strong winds will resume along Colombia Tue
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Strong thunderstorms with strong wind gusts have been occurring
in the Atlantic waters off of Georgia and north Florida tonight.
This activity is being enhanced by strong upper-level diffluence
aloft. Numerous moderate convection is occurring north of 30N
and west of 69W.

To the east, a cold front enters the forecast area near
31N38W to 27N58W. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 31N35W to
22N55W. Scattered showers are noted along the trough and front.
Farther east, a weakening upper-level trough to the north of the
Cabo Verde Islands is enhancing shower activity north of 20N and
east of 24W.

A surface ridge will remain over the area east of the Bahamas
through mid-week. Fresh to strong southerly winds will affect the
waters north of 27N and west of 65W through Monday night as a
cold front approaches the Georgia coast. The front will push
southeast into the west Atlantic waters early on Tuesday and
extend from 31N73W to Jupiter, Florida by 1200 UTC. By Wednesday
morning, the front will extend from 31N65W to the southern tip of
Andros Island. Strong winds ahead of the front will affect the
waters north of 28N through Tuesday night. A second push of cold
air will support fresh to locally strong winds across the northern
waters on Wednesday night through Thursday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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