[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022333
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
633 PM EST Sun Dec 2 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastline of southern
Sierra Leone near 07N12W and extends to 07N15W. The ITCZ
continues from 07N15W to 06N23W to 02N31W to 02N44W. A surface
trough is analyzed along 46W from the Equator to 03N. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 00N-07N from 17W eastward.
Scattered moderate/isolated strong convection is seen from 03N-07N
between 39W-49W, near the northern portion of the surface trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 2100 UTC, a cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle
near 30N85.5W to 28N90.5W, where it continues as a stationary
front to 27N95W to a 1006 mb low near 26N96W. A cold front
extends from this low to 24N97W to 24N99W. A second cold front at
2100 UTC is analyzed from central Louisiana to 29.5N93.5W to
Galveston Texas to Port O'Connor Texas, then westward inland into
south Texas. A line of strong thunderstorms about 30 nm wide has
developed along the first cold front over the NE Gulf of Mexico
and extends from 29.8N85.2W to 28.7N88.4W. Gusty winds are
possible with these storms. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are possible elsewhere within 60 nm of a line from
29.8N85.2W to 28.7N88.4W to 27.5N90W.

The front that extends from Panama City Florida to 27N93W will be
stationary or advance slowly through Monday morning. A reinforcing
cold front will merge with this front by Mon night. The merged
front will then extend from central Florida to Tampico Tue night
and from Miami to Veracruz Wed morning. Strong high pressure
building southward behind the merged front will bring strong
northerly winds to much of the western and central Gulf beginning
early on Tue, with winds possibly reaching gale force near
Veracruz Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Dry air is over the basin, with little to no significant
convective activity noted. Upper-level anticyclonic flow covers
the basin from 13N-22N between 69W-89W. High pressure to the north
of the region is leading to strong easterly trades, especially
across the central portion of the Caribbean, including near the
coast of Colombia.

High pressure N of the area will shift to the central Atlantic on
Tue, supporting fresh to strong trade winds over the south-
central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. Winds along the coast
of Colombia are expected to be near gale on Mon. A front moving N
of the area on Tue will allow for winds to diminish over the
central basin. Strong high pressure building behind that front
will tighten the gradient again and fresh to strong winds will
resume along Colombia Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Strong to severe thunderstorms with strong wind gusts have been
occurring in the Atlantic waters off of Georgia and north Florida
today. This activity is being enhanced by strong upper-level
diffluence and upper-level divergence in the area. Numerous
moderate to scattered strong convection is occurring north of a
line extending from 30N82W to 30N78W to 31N76W to 31N73W,
extending beyond the northern border of the forecast area, which
is 32N. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are possible
elsewhere north of a line from 28N82W to 28N79W to 30N73W to
30N66W.

A cold front enters the forecast area near 32N42W to 29N50W
to 28N57W, and continues as a stationary front to 30N62W to
32N63W, continuing NW north of the forecast area. The front is
helping to enhance shower activity north of 30N west of 62W.
Isolated showers are possible along and within 180 nm ahead of the
cold front between 39W-53W. A surface trough is analyzed from
32N35W to 25N45W to 21N55W to 21N64W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted N of 31N between 34W-36W. Isolated showers are
possible elsewhere near the trough. Farther east, a weakening
upper-level trough to the north of the Cabo Verde Islands is
enhancing shower activity from 18N-28N between 17W-26W.

A surface high pressure ridge will remain over the area east of
the Bahamas through Wed. Fresh to strong S to SW winds will affect
the waters N of 27N and W of 65W through Mon night as a cold front
approaches the Georgia coast. The front will push SE into the NW
waters early on Tue and extend from 31N73W to Jupiter, Florida
near 1200 UTC. By Wed morning the front will extend from 31N65W to
the southern tip of Andros Island. Strong winds ahead of the front
will affect the waters N of 28N through Tue night. A second push
of cold air will support fresh to locally strong winds across the
northern waters Wed night through Thu.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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