[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021756
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1256 PM EST Sun Dec 2 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 07N15W. The ITCZ continues from 07N15W to
05N25W to 02N32W 02N37W, to the coast of Brazil near the Equator
along 50W. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from the
Equator to 04N between 48W and 50W. Warming cloud top temperatures
and weakening but still remnant rainshowers are elsewhere from
05N southward from 46W westward. Disorganized isolated moderate
to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 10N southward
from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through coastal sections of Mississippi,
into the west central Gulf of Mexico, to a 1006 mb low pressure
center that is near 23N95W. The stationary front continues from
the 1006 mb low pressure to the northern part of the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are inland, from 30N northward in SE Georgia.
Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 29N northward
from 88W eastward.

Middle level to upper level SW wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico.

The northern part of the current front will transition to a cold
front later today. The front will extend from Panama City to
27N93W by Monday morning. A reinforcing cold front will merge
with this front by Monday night. The merged front will extend
from central Florida to Tampico in Mexico on Tuesday night, and
from Miami to Veracruz in Mexico on Wednesday morning. Strong
high pressure building southward behind the merged front will
generate strong winds beginning early on Tuesday. SREF and GEFS
guidance suggest that these winds may reach gale-force near
Veracruz in Mexico on Tuesday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 15N
southward from 70W westward. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is
centered near the Windward Passage. Upper level anticyclonic wind
flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 15N northward from the Mona
Passage westward.

The monsoon trough is along 09N75W in northern Colombia, across
Panama east-to-west, beyond southern Costa Rica. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are from 12N southward from 75W westward.

Rainshowers are possible elsewhere across the Caribbean Sea, in
clusters of broken low level and middle level clouds. 24-hour
rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at
02/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.33 in
Curacao, 0.17 in St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands, 0.13 in San
Juan in Puerto Rico, 0.03 in Trinidad, and 0.01 in Guadeloupe.

Surface high pressure N of the area, and shifting to the central
Atlantic Ocean on Tuesday, will support fresh to strong trade
winds in the south central Caribbean Sea and in the Gulf of
Honduras. The wind speeds along the coast of Colombia are
expected to be near gale-force on Monday. A front moving N of the
area on Tuesday will allow for winds to diminish in the central
basin. Strong surface high pressure building behind that front
will tighten the gradient again, and fresh to strong winds will
resume along Colombia on Tuesday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating stationary front passes through 32N36W to 23N50W
to 21N57W and 21N66W. Broken low level and middle level clouds and
possible rainshowers are within 60 nm to 90 nm on either side of
the line that passes through 32N36W 26N44W 24N50W 21N57W 22N65W
22N69W and 26N69W.

A cold front has moved southward and entered the area, passing
through 32N48W to 29N57W and 31N63W. The front continues
northwestward, as stationary, from 31N63W beyond Bermuda.
Rainshowers are possible from 28N northward between 40W and 70W.

Surface high pressure, centered near 29N62W, gradually will move
E into the central Atlantic Ocean through Wednesday. Fresh to
strong S to SW winds will affect the waters N of 27N and W of 65W
through Monday night, as a cold front approaches the Georgia
coast. The front will push SE into the NW waters early on Tuesday,
and extend from 31N73W to Jupiter, Florida near 1200 UTC. The
front will extend from 31N65W to the southern tip of Andros Island
by Wednesday morning. Strong winds ahead of the front will affect
the waters N of 28N through Tuesday night. A second push of cold
air will support fresh to locally strong winds across the northern
waters from Wednesday night through Thursday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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