[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011718
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1218 PM EST Sat Dec 1 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from western Africa near 08N12W to
06N17W. The ITCZ extends from 06N17W to 03N30W to the coast of
Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180
nm of either side of the ITCZ axis between 20W and 38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is moving offshore of the Texas coast and as of 1500
UTC extends from 30N94W to 24N98W. Moderate to fresh NW winds are
behind this front. A pre- frontal trough has developed to the
east of the front and at that time extended from 29N91W to 27N95W,
and is accompanied by a S to NW wind shift and scattered
thunderstorms along the trough N of 28N. An upper level
disturbance indicated in water vapor imagery has crossed SW to NW
over the Gulf and is now about to exit the NE Gulf. This
disturbance is interacting with moist southerly flow and low
level convergence to support numerous showers and thunderstorms N
of 28N and E of 89W. Recent scatterometer imagery suggests that
surface wind gusts to 40 kt are possibly occurring underneath and
within about 50 nm S of these thunderstorms. Other surface
observations confirm fresh to strong S to SW winds elsewhere N of
26N between 83W and 91W, to the west of the aforementioned pre-
frontal trough. The remainder of the Gulf is under moderate to
fresh S to SE flow between high pressure over the W Atlantic and
the cold front over the NW Gulf.

The cold front will stall from SE Louisiana to near Tampico
Mexico Sun morning, then lift slowly northward as a warm front Sun
evening. A strong cold front will reach the Texas coast on
Monday. High pressure building southward behind the front will
induce strong to near gale-force winds behind the front, with gale
force winds possible near Veracruz Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tail end of a dissipating stationary front extends from the
Windward Passage to just north of Jamaica near 19N78W. This
boundary supports scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
within 60 nm of either side of the front. Anticyclonic trade wind
flow around the SW periphery of high pressure centered over the
western Atlantic dominates the remainder of the Caribbean. These
trade winds currently are mainly moderate to fresh over the
basin, except locally strong near the northern coast of Colombia.

The stationary front will completely dissipate through this
afternoon. Fresh trade winds will persist in the south-central
Caribbean through early next week, with the strongest winds mainly
at night near the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong E to SE
winds are expected across the Gulf of Honduras mainly at night
through Mon morning.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The combination of an upper level disturbance over the NE Gulf
and moist southerly flow is supporting increasing shower activity
offshore northern Florida N of 27N W of 76W. A 1023 mb high is
centered near 31N69W. The pressure gradient between this high and
lower pressures over the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean supports
fresh SE winds within about 240 nm E of the Florida peninsula. The
cold front that has been marching east over the western Atlantic
and then central Atlantic the past few days now enters the area
of discussion near 31N41W and extends to 24N50W to 22N56W and is
then stationary to near the Windward Passage. The western portion
is dissipating as the high pressure continues to drift east. No
deep convection is associated with this front, with shower
activity possibly occurring underneath the cloud canopy within 90
nm of either side of the frontal boundary. The eastern Atlantic
is dominated at the surface by high pressure centered N of the
Canary Islands.

The stationary front will continue to weaken and become diffuse
tonight. The western Atlantic high pressure will continue to
drift eastward through Sunday. Southerly winds will continue to
strengthen W of 75W later today ahead of a cold front expected to
push off the Georgia coast on Mon. The front will extend from
31N75W to Cape Canaveral on Tue, and from 31N67W to Andros Island
on Wed morning.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto
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