[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011115
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
615 AM EST Sat Dec 1 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from southern Sierra Leone near 08N12W
to 05N17W. The ITCZ extends from 05N17W to 05N20W to 02N30W to
the coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Isolated moderate convection is
from 01N-06N between 22W-44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is just inland over E Texas moving quickly towards
the Gulf of Mexico. The entire Gulf has 10-25 kt southerly return
flow with the strongest surface pressure gradient over the central
Gulf. Scattered moderate convection is over the NE Gulf from 27N-
30N between 84W-89W due to surface convergence and upper level
diffluence. Broken low clouds are over the remainder of the E
Gulf E of 87W to include Florida. The W Gulf and E Texas has
mostly fair weather.

In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over Texas, while an
upper level ridge axis is over Florida.

A cold front moving off the Texas coast today will stall from SE
Louisiana to near Tampico Mexico Sun morning, then lift slowly
northward as a warm front Sun evening. A strong cold front will
reach the Texas coast on Monday. High pressure building southward
behind the front will induce strong to near gale-force winds
behind the front, with gale force winds possible near Veracruz Tue
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tail end of a stationary front extends from 20N70W, across
Hispaniola, to Jamaica near 18N78W. Scattered showers are within
60 nm of the front. Elsewhere, scattered showers are over the
Leeward and Windward Islands moving W with the tradewinds. Similar
showers are actually reaching the ABC Islands. Lastly, scattered
showers are noted along the coasts of W Panama and Costa Rica.
10-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean with strongest winds
along the coast of N Colombia.

The stationary front will dissipate tonight into Sat. Fresh
tradewinds will persist in the south-central Caribbean through
early next week, with the strongest winds mainly at night near the
coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are expected
across the Gulf of Honduras mainly at night the next few nights.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers are over the northern Bahamas, and along the
Florida NE coast. A 1023 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic
near 31N69W. A stationary front is over the central Atlantic from
32N42W to 26N50W to 21N62W. A stationary front continues from
21N62W to 20N70W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the
fronts. A 1026 mb high is centered off the coast of Portugal near
37N11W. Surface ridging extends from this high to 25N40W.

Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is centered W of
the Cape Verde Islands near 16N36W. Upper level diffluence is E of
the center producing broken to overcast high clouds from 15N-21N
between 16W-35W.

The stationary front over the W Atlantic will stall along 21N-
22N on Sat, and gradually weaken through Sun. High pressure behind
the front will induce fresh trade winds south of 23N. As the high
pressure shifts E through Sun, expect increasing southerly winds
across the waters N of 27N W of 77W on Sat, and mainly N of 28N W
of 65W on Sun. Seas generated by a large low pressure system in
the central Atlantic will continue to propagate across the eastern
waters in northerly swell through the weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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