[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020001
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
701 PM EST Sat Dec 1 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the west coast of Sierra Leone
near 08N13W to 05N21W. The ITCZ extends from 05N21W to 04N26W to
03N41W to the coast of Brazil near 01S48W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 180 nm N and 240 nm S of the axis
between 12W-25W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
near and within 210 nm N of the axis between 35W and the coast of
Brazil.

GULF OF MEXICO...

At 2100 UTC, a NNE-SSW oriented cold front extends through western
Mississippi to the Gulf Coast of south-central Louisiana near
29.5N92W to 26N95W to 22N97W, curving westward into Mexico to
22N99W. Moderate to fresh NW winds are behind this front. A pre-
frontal trough just east of the front extends from 29N90W to
26N94W as of 2100 UTC, and is accompanied by a S to NW wind shift.
Another surface trough extends from 30N87W to 29N83W. At 2100 UTC,
this trough is over the Florida Panhandle, north of the 1800 UTC
position. Numerous moderate/scattered strong convection is seen
north of 29N between 82W-90W. The heaviest thunderstorms are over
the Florida Panhandle and the coastal waters of the Florida
Panhandle north of 29.5N, where gusty winds are occurring, and
where a tornado watch was in effect this afternoon. These strong
to severe thunderstorms are being enhanced by an upper-level jet
streak over the southern United States. Elsewhere, the Gulf of
Mexico is free of significant convection. The remainder of the
Gulf is under moderate to fresh S to SE flow between high pressure
over the W Atlantic and the cold front over the NW Gulf.

The cold front that is currently over the western Gulf of Mexico
will stall from Pensacola Florida to El Mezquital, Mexico on
Sunday morning, and then move slowly northward through Monday. A
stronger cold front will move off the Texas coast on Monday and
merge with the weaker front over the Gulf of Mexico by Monday
night. The front will then reach from central Florida to
Coatzacoalcos Mexico Tuesday morning and from the southern tip of
Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula Wednesday. Strong high pressure
building southward behind the front will induce strong northerly
winds, with near-gale to gale-force winds likely near Veracruz on
Tuesday evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Water vapor imagery shows relatively dry air over the Caribbean
Sea, as upper-level anticyclonic flow dominates the region. High
pressure to the north of the region over the western Atlantic is
inducing fresh easterly trades across the basin, except locally
strong near the coast of Colombia. While no strong or moderate
convection is noted across the basin, isolated trade wind showers
are observed near and just south of Puerto Rico, a second area
south of 13.5N between 60W-71W, and a third area south of Cuba
between Grand Cayman and the Isle of Youth.

High pressure N-NE of the area will support fresh to strong trade
winds in the south-central Caribbean through Tuesday. Expect
strong to near-gale force winds along the coast of Colombia on
Monday night, but only fresh-to-strong other days at night. Fresh
to strong E to SE winds are expected to continue across the Gulf
of Honduras, mainly at night, through Monday morning.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Moist southerly flow associated with a shortwave trough is
producing strong to severe thunderstorms across northern Florida,
southern Georgia and southern Alabama. Scattered moderate
convection associated with this system extends over the western
Atlantic, mainly N of 29N W of 76W. Scattered showers are
elsewhere N of 26N W of 72W. A 1023 mb high is centered near
30N67W. Farther east, a cold front enters the forecast area near
32N37W and extends to 25N48W to 22N55W. A stationary front
continues from 22N55W to the SE Bahamas near 21N73W. Scattered
showers are noted within 120 nm of the front N of 25N E of 46W.
Elsewhere along the front, isolated showers are possible. An
upper-level low is centered near 19N35W, leading to scattered
moderate convection from 16N-22N between 29W-33W. Scattered
showers are noted elsewhere from 10N-27N between 21W-35W.
Northeast of this feature, a surface ridge dominates near the
Canary Islands, with relatively quiet weather N of 27N E of 32W.
Seas of 11-14 ft will continue tonight N of 26N E of 50W due to
NW swell from a system over the far north-central Atlantic.

The stationary front from 21N60W to the SE Bahamas will continue
to weaken and become diffuse tonight. A 1023 mb high pressure
center near 30N66W will drift eastward through Sunday. Strong
southerly winds will continue tonight W of 75W and N of the
northwest Bahamas ahead of a cold front that is expected to push
off the Georgia coast on Monday. The front will extend from 31N75W
to Cape Canaveral on Tuesday, and from 31N67W to Andros Island on
Wednesday morning.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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