[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121205
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W, to 02N21W. The ITCZ continues from 02N21W,
crossing the Equator along 24W, to 03S30W, 01S37W, to the coast of
Brazil near 02S45W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers, in a disorganized pattern, are from 07N
southward between 06W and 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through 28N70W in the Atlantic Ocean, across
the Bahamas to 25N80W. A dissipating stationary front continues
from 25N80W, just to the south of the southernmost part of the
Florida Keys, to 24N84W. Rainshowers are possible from 25N
southward from 84W eastward.

A surface ridge passes through SE Georgia, to a 1021 mb high
pressure center that is near 30N89W, to a 1020 mb high pressure
center that is near 23N97W, into the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico.

Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico, from 23N southward between 90W and the coast of Mexico.

Southerly return flow will increase across the basin through
Friday. A strong cold front, moving off the Texas coast on
Saturday, will extend from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of
Campeche on Sunday, and then exit the region on Sunday night.
Fresh to strong S winds ahead of the front will become strong to
near-gale northerly winds behind the front. Gale force winds are
possible across the SW Gulf behind the front on Saturday and
Saturday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gentle to moderate trade winds continue across the basin. Broad
upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea.

A surface trough passes across the border of Costa Rica and
Panama, from the eastern Pacific Ocean, across 80W between Panama
and 10N, into northern Colombia. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 11N southward
between 76W and 81W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere
from 15N southward from 75W westward.

Strong nocturnal winds are expected along the coast of Colombia
through Sunday night. Fresh to strong trades will support large
seas in a large part of the tropical North Atlantic Ocean into
Saturday night. A cold front moving into the NW Caribbean Sea on
Sunday night will extend from central Cuba to the coast of
Nicaragua on Monday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N64W to 28N70W, across the Bahamas
to 25N80W. A dissipating stationary front continues from 25N80W,
just to the south of the southernmost part of the Florida Keys, to
24N84W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are within 120 nm to 180 nm
on either side of the line that passes through 32N59W 24N63W
23N72W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 19N38W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow is within 300 nm to 400 nm on either
side of 23N30W 19N38W 15N60W 14N63W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Atlantic
Ocean from 10N northward from 70W eastward. A 1028 mb high
pressure center is near 31N38W.

The current cold front, from 32N64W to 25N80W, will stall and
dissipate near the central Bahamas later today. A second cold
front will bring strong to near gale-force southerly winds into
the western Atlantic ahead of the front, on Sunday and Sunday
night, with fresh to strong northerly winds expected behind the
front on Monday and Monday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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