[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121719
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
119 PM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1645 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W, to 04N16W and 03N22W. The ITCZ continues from
03N22W, crossing the Equator along 35W, to 01S45W in Brazil.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers,
in a disorganized pattern, are from 07N southward between 05W and
25W, and from 02N southward between 35W and 50W. rainshowers are
possible elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through 27N70W, in the Atlantic Ocean, across
the Bahamas to Andros Island and 24N79W. A stationary front
continues from 24N79W, into the Straits of Florida, just to the
south of the southernmost part of the Florida Keys, to 24N84W.
rainshowers are possible from NW Cuba to 26N between Andros Island
and 84W.

A surface ridge passes through southern Georgia and the Florida
Big Bend, to 28N89W, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico near
19N97W.

Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico, from 23N southward between 90W and the coast of Mexico.

Southerly return flow is forecast across the Gulf waters through
Friday, ahead of a cold front that is moving off the Texas coast
on Friday night. The front will extend from the Mississippi Delta
to the Bay of Campeche on Saturday night. The front will extend
from the Florida Big Bend area to the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday.
The front will move southeast of the area on Sunday night. Gale-
force wind conditions are forecast across the SW Gulf from
Saturday into Saturday night. Southerly return flow will
redevelop across the northwest Gulf on Monday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gentle to moderate trade winds continue across the basin. Broad
upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea.

A surface trough continues from the eastern Pacific Ocean, across
the border of Costa Rica and Panama, across 80W in Panama, into
northern Colombia. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are from 11N southward between 76W and
82W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 15N
southward from 74W westward.

Strong nocturnal winds are expected along the coast of Colombia
through Monday. Fresh to strong trade winds will continue across
the tropical waters that are to the east of the Lesser Antilles
through Tuesday. Fresh to locally strong trade winds will develop
across the northwest Caribbean Sea on Friday, ahead of a cold
front that is passing through the Yucatan Channel on Sunday. The
front will extend from eastern Cuba to the eastern part of
Honduras late on Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N62W to 27N70W, across the Bahamas
to Andros Island and 24N79W. A stationary front continues from
24N79W, into the Straits of Florida, just to the south of the
southernmost part of the Florida Keys, to 24N84W. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are within 120 nm to 180 nm on either side of
the line that passes through 32N55W 25N60W 23N73W. rainshowers are
possible from NW Cuba to 26N between Andros Island and 84W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 19N39W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow is within 300 nm to 450 nm on either
side of 24N29W 19N38W 15N55W 14N63W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Atlantic
Ocean from 10N northward from 70W eastward. A 1028 mb high
pressure center is near 30N35W.

The current cold front, from 32N62W to 24N79W, will stall from
27N65W to the central Bahamas on Friday. Remnants of the front
will lift northward on Saturday and Sunday, ahead of a second cold
front that will be moving off the southeast Georgia coast on
Sunday evening, with the second front reaching from Bermuda to
east Cuba early on Tuesday. Strong to near gale force southerly
flow is forecast to the north of the Bahamas on Sunday and Sunday
night, with fresh to strong northerly winds expected behind the
front on Monday and Monday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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