[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120523
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
122 AM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of west Africa near
06N10W to 04N14W. The ITCZ continues from 04N14W to 02N30W to the
coast of Brazil near 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is
found within 60 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 12W-22W and
west of 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the west Atlantic across South Florida
reaching the southeast Gulf waters as a weakening stationary front
from 25N81W to 24N88W. Strong subsidence prevails over the basin
in response to mid- to upper- level ridging building overhead from
the northwest. Surface ridging prevails across the northern Gulf
supporting light to gentle anticyclonic winds across most of the
area.

The frontal boundary will dissipate over the Straits of Florida
today. A stronger cold front will move off the Texas coast by
early this weekend. Fresh to strong southerly winds preceding it
will become strong to near-gale from the north behind the front.
Gale-force winds are possible over the southwest Gulf near
Tampico and Veracruz by Sat afternoon through Sun morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gentle to moderate trades continue across the basin. Mid to
upper-level ridging extending northward over the basin from South
America is maintaining a fairly dry weather pattern and strong
subsidence over the Caribbean. Strong nocturnal winds and seas
building to between 8 and 10 feet are expected near the coast of
Colombia and in the Gulf of Honduras Fri night through Sun night
as the high pressure ridge to the north strengthens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends SW from a 1010 mb low centered near 35N63W
to 25N80W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 27N71W to 25N77W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed along and up to 120 nm east of
the front mainly north of 25N. The remainder of the basin remains
under the influence of a broad surface ridge, anchored by a 1030
mb high centered near 31N38W. The high is supporting moderate to
fresh trade winds over the tropical Atlc west of 30W and north of
the ITCZ to 28N. Light to gentle winds prevail north of 28N due
to the proximity of the ridge axis.

Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected north of 28N
near the front in the west Atlantic today. The front will slowly
move southeast beyond the Bahamas through Fri night, then extend
from 32N41W to 27N62W as a dissipating stationary front by Sat
morning. Another cold front will be preceded by strong southerly
winds that will affect the waters east of Florida by Sun night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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