[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111203
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
803 AM EDT Wed Apr 11 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Guinea-Bissau on the coast of
west Africa near 12N17W to 08N17W to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues
from 04N19W to 00N29W to 04S33W to the coast of Brazil near
05S08W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
found from 00N to 05N between 12W and 15W and from 09S to 00N
between 31W and 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front crosses the basin from S of Tampa Florida near
27N82W to 23N93W to just N of Veracruz Mexico near 20N97W.
Virtually all of the significant deep convection in the vicinity
of the front has dissipated except for a small area over the bay
of campeche from 18N to 20N between 93W and 94W. Moderate to fresh
northeast winds are observed north of the front while light and
variable winds are seen over the basin south of the front.

The cold front will continue moving slowly southeast and stall
over the southeast Gulf tonight, then dissipate over the Straits
of Florida Thu. Winds will continue to subside N of the front to
between light and moderate and veer from the southeast as high
pressure shifts east over the southern United States into the west
Atlantic by Fri morning. A stronger cold front will move off the
Texas coast Sat. Fresh to strong southerly winds preceding it will
become strong to near gale northerly behind the front. Gale-
force winds are possible over the southwest Gulf by late Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gentle to moderate trades continue across the basin. Mid to
upper- level ridging extending northward over the basin from South
America is maintaining a fairly dry weather pattern with strong
subsidence over the Caribbean. Strong nocturnal winds and seas
building to between 8 and 10 feet are expected near the coast of
Colombia and in the Gulf of Honduras Fri night through Sun night
as the high pres ridge to the N strengthens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends SW from a 1012 mb low centered near 32N73W
to Cape Canaveral Florida near 28N81W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is observed along and up to 120 nm NW
of the front N of 29N.

The cold front over the northwest waters will move southeast
through Thu night, then extend from 32N47W to 26N62W before
dissipating by Fri morning. Fresh to strong winds and building
seas are expected north of 28N near the front through Thu morning.
Another cold front will bring strong southerly winds ahead of it
affecting the waters east of Florida by late this weekend.

The remainder of the basin remains under the influence of a broad
surface ridge, anchored by a 1030 mb high centered SW of the
Azores near 32N36W. The high is supporting moderate to fresh trade
winds over the tropical Atlc W of 30W and N of the ITCZ to 28N.
Winds in the region N of 28N are light to gentle due to the
vicinity of the ridge axis.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
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