[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111657
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1257 PM EDT Wed Apr 11 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the border of Sierra Leone and
Liberia on the coast of west Africa near 07N11W to 04N14W. The
ITCZ continues from 04N14W to 02N20W to 01N30W to 03S39W to the
coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is found within 60 nm either side of a line from
00N11W to 02N15W to 02N22W to 04N26W and within 90 nm either side
of a line from 09S34W to 07S33W to 02S36W to 01S44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front crosses the basin from Ft Myers Florida near 26N82W
to 23N92W, continues as a stationary front to 20N95W, then as a
weakening stationary front to just NW of Veracruz near 19N97W.
Virtually all of the significant deep convection over the basin
has dissipated as strong subsidence sets up over the basin in
response to mid- to upper-level ridging building overhead from the
NW. Moderate to fresh northeast winds are observed north of the
front while light and variable winds are seen over the basin south
of the front.

The frontal boundary is slowing down and weakening and is
expected to stall over the far southeast Gulf tonight, then
dissipate over the Straits of Florida Thu. Winds will continue to
subside N of the front to between light and moderate and veer from
the southeast as high pressure shifts east over the southern
United States into the west Atlantic by Fri morning. A stronger
cold front will move off the Texas coast Sat. Fresh to strong
southerly winds preceding it will become strong to near gale from
the north behind the front. Gale force winds are possible over the
southwest Gulf near Tampico and Veracruz Sat afternoon through
Sun morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gentle to moderate trades continue across the basin. Mid to
upper- level ridging extending northward over the basin from South
America is maintaining a fairly dry weather pattern and strong
subsidence over the Caribbean. Strong nocturnal winds and seas
building to between 8 and 10 feet are expected near the coast of
Colombia and in the Gulf of Honduras Fri night through Sun night
as the high pres ridge to the N strengthens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends SW from a 1012 mb low centered near 32.5N71W
to Ft Lauderdale Florida near 26.5N80W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is observed along and up to 120 nm SE
of the front N of 26N.

The cold front over the northwest waters will slowly move
southeast beyond the Bahamas through Fri night, then reach a
position from 32N41W to 27N62W as a dissipating stationary front
Sat morning. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected
north of 28N near the front through Thu morning. Another cold
front will be preceded by strong southerly winds that will affect
the waters east of Florida by Sun night.

The remainder of the basin remains under the influence of a broad
surface ridge, anchored by a 1032 mb high centered SW of the
Azores near 31N37W. The high is supporting moderate to fresh trade
winds over the tropical Atlc W of 30W and N of the ITCZ to 28N.
Winds in the region N of 28N are light to gentle due to the
proximity of the ridge axis.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
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