[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110520
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
119 AM EDT Wed Apr 11 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of west Africa near
06N11W to 03N21W. The ITCZ continues from 03N21W to the coast of
Brazil near 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is found south
of 00N and west of 30W while another area of scattered moderate
convection is exiting the Africa coast mainly east of 13W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the basin, analyzed as a cold front
from 28N83W to 24N93W, then as a stationary front from that point
to 22N97W. Areas of scattered to moderate convection are observed
in the vicinity of the front mainly east of 88W and west of 95W.
Fresh to strong northeast winds are observed north of the front
while gentle to locally moderate southeast winds prevail over the
basin south of the front.

The cold front will continue moving slowly southeast and stall
over the southeast Gulf on Wed night, then dissipate in the
Straits of Florida on Thu. Fresh northerly winds are expected
north of the front overnight. Winds will subside to light to
moderate and veer from the southeast as high pressure shifts east
over the southern United States into the west Atlantic. A
stronger cold front will move off the Texas coast early this
weekend. Fresh to strong southerly winds preceding it will become
strong to near- gale northerly behind the front. Gale-force winds
are possible over the southwest Gulf by late Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gentle to moderate trades continue across the basin. This winds
are transporting low-level moisture to generate spotty scattered
showers across the while basin. Mid to upper-level ridging
extending northwestward over the basin from South America is
maintaining a fairly dry weather pattern with strong subsidence
over the Caribbean. Strong nocturnal winds are expected near the
coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Honduras Fri night through
Sun night. Fresh to strong trade winds will support large seas
over a large portion of the tropical Atlantic waters through Sat
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal system extends across the west Atlantic analyzed as a
cold front from a 1014 mb low near 31N75W to 29N81. Scattered
moderate convection is observed in the vicinity of the front
mainly west of 75W affecting the northern Bahamas and Florida
Straits. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a
broad surface ridge, anchored by a 1033 mb high centered near
33N34W.

the cold front across northwest waters will move southeast
through Wed night, then stall and dissipate from the central
Bahamas to the Florida Straits Thu. Fresh to strong winds and
building seas are expected north of 28N near the front through
Thu morning. Another cold front will bring strong southerly winds
ahead of it affecting the waters east of Florida by late this
weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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