[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081720
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
120 PM EDT Sun Apr 8 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from west Africa near 08N13W to
02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W to South America near
00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 50 nm on
either side of the monsoon trough east of 16W. Scattered showers
prevail from 02S-04N between 36W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from northern Florida Panhandle near 29N83W
to 26N90W to 19N96W. Abundant cloudiness prevails along and north
of the front at this time. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
across the majority of the basin while an area of moderate to
fresh winds is noted in scatterometer data over the Bay of
Campeche.

The front will become nearly stationary today and lift northward
on Mon. A second push of cold air, along with a developing low
pressure along the frontal boundary, will allow the front to
transition to a cold front again moving over the northern Gulf
waters on Mon. The low is forecast to move across Florida toward
the western Atlantic late on Mon dragging the cold front across
the SE Gulf and South Florida by Wed morning. The front is
forecast to dissipate across the Straits of Florida by Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gentle to moderate tradewinds dominate the basin. Little
convection is seen over the islands at this time. Upper-level
ridging extends northward over the basin from South America with
strong subsidence over the central and eastern Caribbean.

Tradewind flow over the basin remains lighter than normal. As a
result, seas are running fairly low across the area, with the
highest seas of around 5-8 ft occurring near the coast of
Colombia. Little change in the weather pattern is expected during
the next couple of days as the surface ridge to the north remains
weak.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered moderate convection is noted ahead of the front
affecting the west Atlantic N of 29N between 69W-73W. The cold
front extends from 31N77W to 29N81W. No significant convection is
related to this front at this time. Elsewhere, a large 1036 mb
high is located over the northeast Atlantic near 40N30W dominating
the remainder of the area. Fair weather and moderate trade winds
will prevail over the tropical Atlantic north of the ITCZ and west
of 30W.

The front will extend from 31N68W to South Florida this evening.
The western portion of the front is forecast to lift back to the N
as a warm front on Mon and connect with a developing low pressure
system just off South Carolina. The low will move E-NE on Tue
dragging a cold front across Florida. The new cold front will
extend from 31N72W to South Florida by Wed morning, and dissipate
across the Straits of Florida by Thu. Both fronts will be preceded
by fresh to strong SW winds and building seas.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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