[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090001
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
801 PM EDT Sun Apr 8 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from west Africa near 08N12W to
01N20W. The ITCZ continues from 01N20W to 00N34W to South America
near 03S41W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-08N between
08W-13W. Isolated moderate convection is from 06S-00N between
30W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from Fort Pierce Florida near 29N80W
to the central Gulf of Mexico near 26N90W to Veracruz Mexico near
19N96W. Abundant cloudiness prevails over the N Gulf N of 26N.
Radar imagery shows scattered showers over central and south
Florida S of 29N. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the
majority of the basin while an area of moderate to fresh winds is
noted in scatterometer data over the Bay of Campeche.

The front will retrograde northward on Mon. A second push of cold
air along with a developing low pressure along the frontal
boundary will allow the front to transition to a cold front again
moving over the northern Gulf waters on Mon. The low is forecast
to move across Florida toward the western Atlantic late on Mon
dragging this cold front across the SE Gulf and South Florida by
Wed morning. The front is forecast to dissipate across the Straits
of Florida by Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gentle to moderate tradewinds dominate the basin. Scattered
showers are over Puerto Rico and the northern Leeward Islands.
Isolated moderate convection is inland over Central America from
Guatemala to Panama. Similar convection is over N Colombia. Upper-
level ridging extends northward over the basin from South America
with strong subsidence over the central and eastern Caribbean.

Tradewind flow over the basin remains lighter than normal. As a
result, seas are running fairly low across the area, with the
highest seas of around 5-8 ft occurring near the coast of
Colombia. Only slight change in the weather pattern is expected
during the next couple of days as the surface ridge to the north
remains relatively weak. Seas will build to 10 ft near the coast
of Colombia, however, on Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 32N71W to 29N75W to Fort
Pierce Florida near 29N80W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 120 nm E of the front. Elsewhere, a large 1036 mb high is
located over the northeast Atlantic near 39N29W dominating the
remainder of the area. Fair weather and moderate trade winds will
prevail over the tropical Atlantic north of the ITCZ and west of
30W.

The western portion of the W Atlantic front is forecast to lift
back to the N as a warm front on Mon and connect with a developing
low pressure system just off South Carolina. The low will move
E-NE on Tue dragging a cold front across Florida. The new cold
front will extend from 31N72W to South Florida by Wed morning, and
dissipate across the Straits of Florida by Thu. Both fronts will
be preceded by fresh to strong SW winds and building seas.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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