[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081202
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
802 AM EDT Sun Apr 8 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 12N17W to 02N22W.
The ITCZ continues from 02N22W to South America near 00N50W.
Widely scattered moderate convection is along the coast of W
Africa from 03N-07N between 01W-13W. Isolated moderate convection
is along the coast of South America from 05S-05N between 31W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 30N83W to
27N90W to 21N97W. Abundant cloudiness prevails along and north of
the front at this time, and scattered showers are noted along 25N
and east of 86W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the
majority of the basin while an area of moderate to fresh winds is
noted in scatterometer data over the Bay of Campeche.

The front will become nearly stationary and weaken from near
Sarasota Florida to Tampico Mexico tonight. A second cold front
will reach SE Louisiana on Mon, and move across across the
northern Gulf waters on Tue. A weak low is forecast to develop
along the frontal boundary near 29N86W on Tue, and will move NE
across the Florida Peninsula toward the western Atlantic on Wed,
dragging the cold front. This front is forecast to reach from near
Tampa Bay to Tuxpan Mexico Tue evening, reach from SW Florida to
near Veracruz Mexico Wed morning, and weaken as it reaches farther
south in the southeast Gulf late Wed night. Relatively weak high
pres will build in the wake of this front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gentle to moderate tradewinds dominate the Caribbean basin.
Isolated moderate convection is inland over S Guatemala, Costa
Rica, W Panama, and N Colombia. Scattered showers are over central
Hispaniola, and over the Leeward Islands. The remainder of the
Caribbean has mostly fair weather. Upper level ridging extends
northward over the basin from South America with strong subsidence
over the central and eastern Caribbean.

Tradewind flow over the basin remains lighter than normal. As a
result, seas are running fairly low across the area, with the
highest seas of around 5 ft occurring near the coast of Colombia.
Little change in the weather pattern is expected during the next
couple of days as the surface ridge to the north remains weak.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Pre-frontal scattered moderate convection is noted over the W
Atlantic off the coast of Florida N of 26N and W of 75W.
Elsewhere, a large 1035 mb high is located over the central
Atlantic near 40N33W dominating the entire basin. Fair weather and
moderate trade winds will prevail over the tropical Atlantic
north of the ITCZ and west of 30W.

A cold front will move off the NE Florida coast later today,
reaching from near 31N65W to the northern Bahamas tonight, then
stall and weaken along 28N on Mon. The western portion of the
front will lift back to the N as a warm front through early Tue.
Another cold front will move over the NW waters Mon night into
Tue, reach from near 31N70W to the northern Bahamas and S Florida
on Wed, and extend from 29N65W to the central Bahamas on Wed
night. Both fronts will be preceded by fresh to strong SW winds
and building seas.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA/Formosa
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