[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060515
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
115 AM EDT Fri Apr 6 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0445 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the border of Sierra Leone and
Guinea on the coast of Africa near 09N13W to 04N17W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N17W to 02N22W and then to the coast of Brazil
near 01S47W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
present within an area bounded by 06N11W to 04N32W to 02S38W to
02S30W to 06N11W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered over the NE Gulf just S of Mobile Alabama
near 30N88W ridges southwestward across the Gulf of Mexico to the
Bay of Campeche. Coverage of convection over the Gulf has
diminished as convergent winds aloft associated with broad mid to
upper-level ridging building over the Gulf from the west moves
overhead. Moderate to occasionally fresh E to SE winds are causing
seas to build to between 4 and 5 ft over the western Gulf.
Otherwise, seas are running in the 2 to 4-foot range. Looking
ahead, winds will veer from the SE and S across the region Friday
through Saturday ahead of the next cold front, which is due to
enter the NW Gulf Sat evening. The front will move SE then stall
from S Florida to the Bay of Campeche by Sun evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tranquil weather prevails across the Caribbean tonight. Mid to
upper-level ridging extending northward over the basin from South
America is promoting a relatively dry weather pattern. The only
exception to this is over Hispaniola, where a weak upper-level
trough helped to trigger scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the higher terrain during daytime heating on
Thursday. The trough is expected to move eastward away from
Hispaniola and allow shower coverage to decrease during the next
couple of days. The trade winds over the basin remain lighter
than normal as low pressure systems continue moving eastward from
the United States to weaken the ridge to the north. Consequently,
the seas are running fairly low across the area, with the highest
seas around 5 ft near the coast of Colombia. No significant
changes in the weather pattern is expected during the next couple
of days as the ridge to the north remains weak.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the discussion area near 32N64W, then extends
southwestward to 26.5N73W, then continues as a weakening cold
front to the Straits of Florida near 24N80W. This boundary is
weakening and has lost all of its deep convection. Patchy
cloudiness and isolated showers are present along and up to 180 nm
northwest of this boundary. Two weak surface troughs are located
to the east of the front. The first extends from 30N65W to
26.5N68W. The second trough curves southward from 25N69W to 24N71W
to 22N70W. No significant convection is currently associated with
these troughs. Cloudiness and isolated showers are observed
within 150 nm of the axis of another broader trough that is
located along 56W from 14N to 22N. Farther east, a weakening cold
front is producing a narrow band of clouds and showers along its
axis from 32N19W to 29N27W to 28N37W. Otherwise, 1027 mb high
pressure centered SW of the Azores near 36N40W dominates the
central and eastern Atlantic. Fair weather and moderate trade
winds are currently prevail over the tropical Atlantic N of the
ITCZ and W of 30W. These winds will become fresh by Sun as the
high builds. The next cold front is expected to enter the far
western Atlantic waters Saturday night.


For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
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