[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Apr 5 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone on the coast of
Africa near 08N13W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to
03N23W to 01N36W and then to the coast of Brazil near 03S43W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is located
within an area bounded by 06N12W to 03N35W to 01S39W to 02S30W to
06N12W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weakening cold front extends from the Florida Keys to 23N85W to
23N90W. Isolated showers and patchy cloudiness are present along
and up to 90 nm N of this boundary. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is occurring in convergent low-level SE
flow over the western Gulf of Mexico from 25N to 27N between 95W
and 97W. This activity is associated with a surface trough that
curves NW from the Bay of Campeche near 18N93W to 22N96W to just E
of Corpus Christi Texas near 27N97W. High pressure located over
the eastern U.S. ridges southwestward across the Gulf of Mexico.
Moderate to occasionally fresh E to SE winds are causing seas up
to 6 ft over the northwestern corner of the Gulf. Otherwise, seas
are running in the 2 to 4-foot range. Looking ahead, the cold
front is expected to dissipate this evening, and winds are
expected to veer from the SE and S across the region by late
Friday ahead of the next cold front, which is due to enter the NW
Gulf Sat evening.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tranquil weather prevails across the Caribbean today. Mid to
upper-level ridging aloft is promoting a relatively dry weather
pattern. The only exception to this is over hispaniola, where a
weak upper-level trough is helping to trigger scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms over the higher terrain. The trade
winds remain lighter than normal as low pressure systems continue
moving eastward from the United States to weaken the ridge to the
north. Consequently, the seas are running fairly low across the
area, with the highest seas around 5 ft near the coast of
Colombia. No significant changes in the weather pattern is
expected during the next couple of days as the ridge to the north
remains weak.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front over the western Atlantic enters the discussion area
near 32N67W, then extends southwestward to near Key Largo
Florida. Cloudiness and scattered showers are present along and up
to 120 nm northwest of this boundary. A weak surface trough
located to the east of the front curves S from 28N68W to just NE
of the Turks and Caicos Islands near 23N71W. Convergent low-level
flow is only generating isolated showers within 90 n mi of the
trough axis. Similar weather is occurring within 150 nm of
another trough that is located along 56W from 15N to 22N. Farther
east, a weakening cold front is producing a narrow band of clouds
and showers along its axis from 32N22W to 29N41W. Otherwise,
tranquil conditions exist elsewhere under the influences of dry
air aloft and surface high pressure.

The above-mentioned features are expected to gradually dissipate
during the next couple of days, which should allow surface high
pressure to dominate much of the Atlantic basin by this weekend.
The next cold front is expected to enter the far western Atlantic
waters Saturday night.


For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
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