[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061156
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
755 AM EDT Fri Apr 6 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the border of Sierra Leone and
Guinea on the coast of Africa near 09N13W to 04N18W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N18W to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present south
of 04N and west of 22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered over the NE Gulf just S of Mobile Alabama
near 30N86W ridges southwestward across the Gulf of Mexico to the
Bay of Campeche. Coverage of convection over the Gulf has
diminished as convergent winds aloft associated with broad mid-
to upper-level ridging building over the Gulf from the west moves
overhead. Moderate to occasionally fresh E to SE winds are causing
seas to build to between 4 and 5 ft over the western Gulf.
Otherwise, seas are running in the 2- to 4-foot range. Looking
ahead, winds will veer from the SE and S across the region Friday
through Saturday ahead of the next cold front, which is due to
enter the NW Gulf Sat evening. The front will move SE then stall
from S Florida to the Bay of Campeche by Sun evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tranquil weather will prevail across the Caribbean today. Mid to
upper-level ridging extending northward over the basin from South
America is promoting a relatively dry weather pattern. The only
exception to this is over Hispaniola, where a weak upper-level
trough could trigger scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
over the higher terrain through the day. The trough is expected
to move eastward away from Hispaniola, causing shower coverage to
decrease during the next couple of days. The trade winds over the
basin remain lighter than normal as low pressure systems moving
eastward from the United States cause the ridge to the north to
weaken. Consequently, seas are running fairly low across the area,
with the highest seas around 5 ft near the coast of Colombia. No
significant changes in the weather pattern are expected during the
next couple of days as the ridge to the north remains weak.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the discussion area near 31N63W, then extends
southwestward to 27N70W, then continues as a weakening stationary
front to the east of the Bahamas near 25N75W. Patchy cloudiness
and isolated showers are present along and up to 125 nm northwest
of this boundary. Two weak surface troughs are located to the
east of the front. The first extends from 29N66W to 26N68W. The
second trough curves southward from 24N71W to 22N72W. No significant
convection is currently associated with these troughs. Farther
east, a weakening cold front is producing a narrow band of clouds
and a few showers from 31N20W to 28N29W. Otherwise, a 1026 mb
high pressure system located near 35N39W dominates the central
and eastern Atlantic. Fair weather and moderate trade winds
currently prevail over the tropical Atlantic N of the ITCZ and W
of 30W. These winds will become fresh by Sun as the high builds.
The next cold front is expected to enter the far western Atlantic
waters Sat night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

McElroy/ERA/Stewart
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