[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040558
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
158 AM EDT Wed Apr 4 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0450 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the border of Guinea and Sierra
Leone on the coast of W Africa near 09N13W to 03N19W. The ITCZ
continues from 03N19W to 01S39W to the coast of Brazil near
01S50W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
observed within an area bounded by 03N06W to 03S11W to 03N26W to
06N15W to 03N06W and from 02S to 01N between 33W and 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from the western Atlantic near 32N67W WSW to
Tampa Florida and across the Gulf to Tampico Mexico. Moderate to
fresh SE return flow prevails ahead of the next cold front which
is due to enter the NW Gulf early on Wed morning. The front will
push SE into the Gulf Wed, then stall over the northern Gulf Wed
night. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms associated
with the front will be limited in scope. The convection is
expected to be confined N of 26N and taper off after Wed night.
High pressure will build over the SE United States on Thu, then
shift E over the western Atlc on Fri. Light to moderate E winds
Thu will veer from the SE on Fri. Otherwise, weak surface
troughing will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each day, then
shift west into the Bay of Campeche at night. Otherwise, a
generally dry weather pattern is expected to remain in place
through the end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Presently, isolated showers and thunderstorms are occurring over
Hispaniola. A sharp upper-level trough crosses the north central
Caribbean with upper-level divergence noted E of the trough over
the Virgin Islands and northern Windward Islands. A resultant
plume of broken high clouds is over the E Caribbean E of 70W.

The surface high pressure ridge to the N of the of the area will
be weakened by low pres moving E from the United States. This will
keep wind speeds over the basin relatively low in the light to
moderate range. Winds will be moderate to fresh over the south
central Caribbean, except locally strong along the northern Coast
of Colombia during the late night and early morning hours. Mostly
dry weather will continue over the remainder of the basin the next
couple days as a subsident air mass associated with ridging to
the W of the upper level trough moves E over the basin. The upper-
level ridge will then dominate the weather through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1023 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 32N63W. A
ridge axis extends WSW from the high to the northern coast of
Florida near 29N. A weak surface ridge curves E from this high
through a weak 1021 mb high over the central Atlantic near 29N42W
to a third high over the E Atlantic near 33N25W. Moderate to fresh
trade winds and mostly fair weather will prevail over the
tropical Atlantic N of the ITCZ and west of 25W through Thu. A
cold front will enter the western Atlantic Wed night and move into
the central Atlantic on Fri. The southern portion of the front
will stall and weaken over the northern Bahamas.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
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