[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Wed Apr 4 06:45:23 CDT 2018


AXNT20 KNHC 041144
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
744 AM EDT Wed Apr 4 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 08N13W to
03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17W to 00S30W to Brazil near
01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-05N between
05W-12W, and from 02N-05N between 19W-25W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is along the coast of Brazil from
03S-03N between 35W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is extends from SW Louisiana to the NW Gulf of Mexico
to S Texas. A prefrontal squall line extends from 29N91W to
27N97W. Scattered moderate convection is from the squall line to
the Texas and Louisiana coasts. 20-30 kt N winds are reported
behind the squall line and front. The remainder of the Gulf has 10
kt southerly return flow with fair weather.

A ridge extends from the western Atlantic near 32N67W WSW to
Tampa Florida and across the Gulf to Tampico Mexico. Moderate to
fresh SE return flow prevails ahead of the next cold front which
is due to enter the NW Gulf early on Wed morning. The front will
stall over the northern Gulf tonight. Convection is expected to
be confined N of 26N and taper off after tonight. High pressure
will build over the SE United States on Thu, then shift E over the
western Atlc on Fri. Light to moderate E winds Thu will veer from
the SE on Fri. Otherwise, weak surface troughing will develop
over the Yucatan Peninsula each day, then shift west into the Bay
of Campeche at night. Otherwise, a generally dry weather pattern
is expected to remain in place through the end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Presently, isolated showers and thunderstorms are occurring over
Hispaniola. A sharp upper-level trough crosses the north central
Caribbean with upper-level divergence noted E of the trough over
the Virgin Islands and northern Windward Islands. A resultant
plume of broken high clouds is over the E Caribbean E of 70W.

The surface high pressure ridge to the N of the of the area will
be weakened by low pres moving E from the United States. This will
keep wind speeds over the basin relatively low in the light to
moderate range. Winds will be moderate to fresh over the south
central Caribbean, except locally strong along the northern Coast
of Colombia during the late night and early morning hours. Mostly
dry weather will continue over the remainder of the basin the next
couple days as a subsident air mass associated with ridging to
the W of the upper level trough moves E over the basin. The upper-
level ridge will then dominate the weather through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1023 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 33N63W. A
ridge axis extends WSW from the high to the northern coast of
Florida near 29N. A weak surface ridge curves E from this high
through a 1021 mb high over the E Atlantic near 33N22W. Moderate
to fresh trade winds and mostly fair weather will prevail over the
tropical Atlantic N of the ITCZ and west of 25W through Fri. A
cold front will enter the western Atlantic tonight and move into
the central Atlantic on Fri. The southern portion of the front
will stall and weaken over the northern Bahamas.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa

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