[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 PM EDT Tue Apr 3 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Guinea on the coast of W Africa
near 09N13W to 05N16W to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W
to 02N24W to 01N30W to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is observed within 30 nm
either side of a line from 02N16W to 04N22W to 01N41W and from 01S
to 03N between 46W and 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from the western Atlantic near 30N74W WSW to
Tampa Florida and across the Gulf to Tampico Mexico. Moderate to
fresh SE return flow prevails ahead of the next cold front which
is due to enter the NW Gulf early on Wed morning. The front will
push SE into the Gulf Wed, then stall over the northern Gulf Wed
night. High pressure will build over the SE United States on Thu,
then shift E over the western Atlc on Fri. Light to moderate E
winds Thu will veer from the SE on Fri. Otherwise, weak surface
troughing will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each day, then
shift west into the Bay of Campeche at night. A dry weather
pattern is expected to remain in place for the next two days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Presently, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
occurring over Hispaniola. More showers are over the Leeward
Islands due to a trough extending N from 13N65W to 18N65W.
Scattered moderate convection is over Lake Maracaibo Venezuela.
In the upper levels, a sharp upper-level trough is over the
central Caribbean with upper level diffluence E of the trough. A
resultant plume of broken high clouds is over the E Caribbean E of
70W.

Surface high pressure centered NE of the area in the Atlantic
will maintain fresh trades in the south-central Caribbean the next
few days. Locally strong winds are possible near the coast of
Colombia at night. Light to moderate trades elsewhere will weaken
slightly through Thu as the ridge weakens. A surface trough along
64W will drift W through Wed. Mostly dry weather will continue
over the remainder of the basin the next couple days. The upper
level trough over the central Caribbean will move E to the
Atlantic Wed. An upper level ridge will then dominate through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1022 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 32N66W. A
ridge axis extends WSW from the high to N Florida at 29N. A weak
surface trough extends WSW over the central Atlantic from 32N45W
to 29N52W. A 1021 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 30N37W.
A ridge axis curves E from this high through another 1020 mb high
pres center near 34N 28W along 30N to Morocco near 31N 09W. The
trough will dissipate tonight. Moderate to fresh trade winds and
mostly fair weather will prevail over the tropical Atlantic west
of 25W through Thu. A cold front will enter the western Atlantic
Wed night and move into the central Atlantic on Fri.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net