[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031751
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
151 PM EDT Tue Apr 3 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 08N13W to 03N20W.
The ITCZ begins near 03N20W and extends to 01N30W to South America
near 02S44W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
well S of the monsoon trough from 3S-3N between 0W-5W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is from 1N-4N between 20W-29W, and
from 4S-3N between 34W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from the western Atlantic near 32N68W to the
northern Gulf of Mexico along 30N. Moderate E to SE surface flow
covers the Gulf with mostly fair weather. Return flow over the SW
Gulf could become strong later today in response to deepening low
pressure in the central U.S. Weak surface troughing will develop
over the Yucatan Peninsula each day, then shift west into the Bay
of Campeche at night. A dry weather pattern is expected to remain
in place for the next two days. A cold front will enter the
northwest Gulf on Wed and reach the southeast Gulf by Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Presently, scattered showers are over Hispaniola. More showers
are over the Leeward Islands due to a trough along 64W. Scattered
moderate convection is over Lake Maracaibo Venezuela, and over
portions of N Colombia. In the upper levels, a sharp upper level
trough is over the central Caribbean with upper level diffluence E
of the trough. A resultant plume of broken high clouds is over
the E Caribbean E of 70W.

Surface high pressure NE of the area in the Atlantic will
maintain fresh trades in the south-central Caribbean the next few
days. Locally strong winds are possible near the coast of Colombia
at night. Light to moderate trades elsewhere will weaken slightly
through Thu as the ridge weakens. A surface trough along 64W will
drift W through Wed. Mostly dry weather will continue over the
remainder of the basin the next couple days. The upper level
trough over the central Caribbean will move E to the Atlantic Wed.
An upper level ridge will then dominate through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1022 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 32N68W. A
ridge axis extends W from the high to N Florida at 30N. A weak
surface trough in the central Atlantic is from 32N50W to 29N54W. A
1021 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 30N37W. Another ridge
axis extends E from this high along 30N to Morocco. The trough
will dissipate today. Moderate to fresh trade winds and mostly
fair weather will prevail over the tropical Atlantic west of 25W
through Thu. A cold front will enter the western Atlantic Wed
night and move into the central Atlantic on Fri.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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