[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021636
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1236 PM EDT Mon Apr 2 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 10N14W to 03N20W.
The ITCZ begins near 03N20W to 01S30W to S America near 01S48W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-05N between 07W-13W,
and from 05S-03N between 34W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 mb high is centered over the N Florida near 30N81W. 10-15
kt E to SE surface flow covers the Gulf with mostly fair weather.

The surface high will shift eastward over the Atlantic through
Tue night. The return flow over the SW Gulf could become strong on
Tue in response to deepening low pressure over the central plains
states. Weak surface troughing will develop over the Yucatan
Peninsula each day, then shift west over the Bay of Campeche
during the evening hours. Mid to upper-level ridging building over
the Gulf from Mexico will keep a dry weather pattern in place for
the next couple of days. The next cold front will enter the
northwest Gulf on Wed and reach the southeast Gulf by Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Seismic activity with undersea volcano Kick'em Jenny, north of
Grenada near 12.18N 61.38W has steadily declined, and the alert
level for mariners has returned to normal, with an exclusion zone
of 1.5 km. Please see www.nadma.gd for additional information.

A surface ridge over the western Atlantic will maintain fresh
trade winds over the south-central Caribbean for the next few
days. Locally strong winds are expected adjacent to the coast of
northern Colombia. Light to moderate trades are forecast elsewhere
through mid-week. Winds will slightly subside during this time
frame as the ridge weakens. A surface trough is over the E
Caribbean along 64W. Only patchy cloudiness and isolated showers
are observed over the Leeward Islands. This trough is expected to
migrate toward the central Caribbean during the next couple of
days. Relatively dry weather will continue over the remainder of
the basin for the next couple days as mid to upper-level ridge
extends north over the basin from South America.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough over the central Atlantic extends from 32N51W to
29N58W. This trough is mostly void of precipitation and will
continue moving east over the next two days. A dissipating cold
front is over the E Atlantic from 32N12W through the Canary
Islands to 23N20W to 21N30W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm E
of the front. This front will exit the basin tonight. A ridge
will maintain moderate to fresh winds over the tropical Atlantic
west of 25W and north of the ITCZ through mid-week. The next cold
front will enter the W Atlantic Wed night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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