[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021153
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
753 AM EDT Mon Apr 2 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 10N14W to 03N19W. The
ITCZ begins near 03N19W to 01S30W to S America near 01N47W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is from 03N-07N between 05W-13W,
and from 05S-02N between 34W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1017 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf of Mexico near 29N84W.
10-15 kt E to SE surface flow covers the Gulf with mostly fair
weather.

The surface high will shift eastward over the Atlantic through
Tue night. The return flow over the SW Gulf could become strong on
Tue in response to deepening low pressure over the central plains
states. Weak surface troughing will develop over the Yucatan
Peninsula each day, then shift west over the Bay of Campeche
during the evening hours. Mid to upper-level ridging building over
the Gulf from Mexico will keep a dry weather pattern in place for
the next couple of days. The next cold front will enter the
northwest Gulf on Wed and reach the southeast Gulf by Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Seismic activity with undersea volcano Kick'em Jenny, north of
Grenada near 12.18N 61.38W has steadily declined, and the alert
level for mariners has returned to normal, with an exclusion zone
of 1.5 km. Please see www.nadma.gd for additional information.

A surface ridge over the western Atlantic will maintain fresh
trade winds over the south-central Caribbean for the next few
days. Locally strong winds are expected adjacent to the coast of
northern Colombia. Light to moderate trades are forecast elsewhere
through mid-week. Winds will slightly subside during this time
frame as the ridge weakens. A surface trough is over the E
Caribbean along 62W. Only patchy cloudiness and isolated showers
are observed in the vicinity of the trough. This trough is
expected to migrate toward the central Caribbean during the next
couple of days. Relatively dry weather will continue over the
remainder of the basin for the next couple days as mid to upper-
level ridge extends north over the basin from South America.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough over the central Atlantic extends from 32N51W to
28N57W. This trough is mostly void of precipitation. This trough
will continue moving east over the next two days. A cold front is
over the E Atlantic from 32N13W through the Canary Islands to
26N19W to 24N27W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm E of the
front. This front will exit the basin today. A ridge will
maintain moderate to fresh winds over the tropical Atlantic west
of 25W and north of the ITCZ through mid-week. The next cold front
will enter the W Atlantic Wed night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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