[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020504
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
104 AM EDT Mon Apr 2 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa along 14N to 20W. The
ITCZ begins near 02N18W to the coast of Brazil near 00N48W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 02N between 31W-
48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A relatively quiet weather scenario is setting up for the Gulf
for the next few days. A broad surface ridge crosses the basin
from NE to SW from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche. A
1018 mb high is centered near 28N84W. Satellite-derived wind data
depict gentle to moderate easterly winds across the basin.

The high pres ridge will shift eastward through Tue night. The
return flow over the SW Gulf could become strong on Tue in
response to deepening low pressure over the central plains states.
Weak surface troughing will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula
each day, then shift west over the Bay of Campeche during the
evening hours. Mid to upper-level ridging building over the Gulf
from Mexico will keep a dry weather pattern in place for the next
couple of days. The next cold front will enter the northwest Gulf
on Wed and reach the southeast Gulf by Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Seismic activity with undersea volcano Kick'em Jenny, north of
Grenada near 12.18N 61.38W has steadily declined, and the alert
level for mariners has returned to normal, with an exclusion zone
of 1.5 km. Please see www.nadma.gd for additional information.

A surface ridge over the western Atlantic will maintain fresh
trade winds over the south-central Caribbean for the next few
days. Locally strong winds are expected adjacent to the coast of
northern Colombia. Light to moderate trades are forecast elsewhere
through mid-week. Winds will slightly subside during this time
frame as the ridge weakens. A surface trough is entering the SE
Caribbean from the Windward Islands. It extends from 14N61W to
11N64W. Only patchy cloudiness and isolated showers are observed
in the vicinity of the trough. This trough is expected to migrate
toward the central Caribbean during the next couple of days.
Relatively dry weather will continue over the basin for the next
couple days as mid to upper-level ridge extends north over the
basin from South America.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends over the south-central Atlantic from
21N57W to 13N61W. This trough will continue moving west entering
the eastern Caribbean during the next 6-12 hours with little
convection. To the northeast, a frontal boundary was analyzed as a
cold front from 31N17W to 26N24W to 28N37W, when as a surface
trough from that point to 28N45W. No convection is related to any
of these features. A surface ridge dominating the remainder of
the basin is anchored by a 1025 mb high located near 42N49W. The
ridge will maintain moderate to fresh winds over the tropical
Atlantic west of 25W and north of the ITCZ through mid-week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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