[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012343
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
743 PM EDT Sun Apr 1 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone on the coast of
Africa near 08N13W to 03N21W. The ITCZ continues from 03N21W to
00N34W to 02N47W to the coast of Brazil near 02N52W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within an area
bounded by 03N08W to 01N23W to 06N19W to 07N13W to 03N08W and
from 01N to 05N between 50W and 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A relatively quiet weather scenario is setting up for the Gulf
for the next few days. A broad surface ridge crosses the basin
from NE to SW from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche.
Satellite-derived wind data depict moderate to occasionally fresh
NE to E winds across the basin.

The high pres ridge will shift eastward through Tue night,
allowing winds over the Gulf to veer from east to southeast. The
return flow over the SW Gulf could become strong on Tue in
response to deepening low pressure over the central plains states.
Weak surface troughing will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula
each day, then shift west over the Bay of Campeche during the
evening. Mid to upper-level ridging building over the Gulf from
Mexico will keep a dry weather pattern in place for the next
couple of days. The next cold front will enter the NW Gulf on Wed
and reach the SE Gulf Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Seismic activity with undersea volcano Kick'em Jenny, north of
Grenada near 12.18N 61.38W has steadily declined, and the alert
level for mariners has returned to normal, with an exclusion zone
of 1.5 km. Please see www.nadma.gd for additional information.

A high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic will maintain
fresh trade winds over the south-central Caribbean for the next
few days. Winds will be locally strong adjacent to the coast of
northern Colombia. Light to moderate trades are forecast elsewhere
through Wednesday night. Winds will slightly subside during this
time frame as the ridge weakens. A weak surface trough is entering
the SE Caribbean from the Windward Islands. It extends from
14N61W to 11N64W. Only patchy cloudiness and isolated showers are
observed in the vicinity of the trough. This trough is expected to
migrate toward the central Caribbean during the next couple of
days. Otherwise, relatively dry weather will continue over the
basin for the next couple days as mid to upper- level ridge
extends N over the basin from S America.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends across the west Atlantic from 30N80W to
28N80W. Another surface trough extends NE from the Virgin islands
near 19N64W to 32N54W. There is little significant weather
associated with this feature. Another surface trough stretches NE
from near St Lucia to 22N54W. An upper-level low providing support
to this trough is triggering Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection within 90 nm of 21N53W. A cold front curves SW
from 31N19W to 27N26W to 27N37W, then continues as a weakening
stationary front to 29N39W to 28N42W to 30N47W. This boundary is
not generating any significant deep convection. A surface ridge
dominating the remainder of the basin is anchored by a 1024 mb
high located near 32N45W. The ridge will maintain moderate to
fresh winds over the tropical Atlantic west of 25W and north of
the ITCZ through Wed. The trough extending NE from near the Virgin
Islands will remain weak and move W toward the Turks and Caicos
Islands during the next 48 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

McElroy/ERA
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