[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Mon Apr 2 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 10N14W to 04N18W.
The ITCZ begins near 04N18W and passes south of the equator near
28W. No significant convection is north of the equator.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from the western Atlantic across the northern
Gulf. Moderate E to SE surface flow covers the Gulf with mostly
fair weather. Return flow over the SW Gulf may become strong on
Tue in response to deepening low pressure in the central U.S.
Weak surface troughing will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula
each day, then shift west into the Bay of Campeche at night. A
dry weather pattern is expected to remain in place for the next
two days. A cold front will enter the northwest Gulf on Wed and
reach the southeast Gulf by Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Undersea volcano Kick 'em Jenny, north of Grenada near 12.18N
61.38W, is in a state of unrest. The government of Grenada
advises mariners to observe a 1.5 km or 0.8 nm exclusion zone.
Please see www.nadma.gd for additional information.

High pressure NE of the area in the Atlantic will maintain fresh
trades in the south-central Caribbean the next few days. Locally
strong winds are possible near the coast of Colombia at night.
Light to moderate trades are forecast elsewhere through Thu, and
weaken slightly as the ridge weakens. A surface trough along 64W
will drift into the central Caribbean through Wed. Mostly dry
weather will continue over the remainder of the basin the next
couple days as mid to upper-level ridge extends north over the
basin from South America.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak surface trough in the central Atlantic extends from
32N49W to 29N56W. The trough will shift eastward the next couple
of days. A ridge in the central Atlantic along 31N will maintain
moderate to fresh trade winds and mostly fair weather over the
tropical Atlantic west of 25W and north of the ITCZ through mid-
week. A cold front will enter the western Atlantic Wed night and
move into the central Atlantic on Fri.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
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