[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311707
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
107 PM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1615 UTC.

..ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to
07N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 07N17W to
05N26W to 04N40W. Scattered moderate convection is from the
Equator to 03N between the Prime Meridian and 04W...and from
01N-09N between 10W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Southwesterly flow aloft prevails over the Gulf basin this
afternoon between an upper level ridge anchored E of Cuba near
21N73W and middle to upper level troughing over the central
CONUS. A surface ridge continues to slowly shift eastward and
remains analyzed as a 1023 mb high centered across southern
Georgia. Mostly gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are noted
across the basin with moderate to fresh SE winds generally
remaining W of 94W ahead of a cold front stretching from central
Louisiana through southeastern Texas and across northern Mexico.
Low-level moisture convergence across the NW Gulf waters is
generating isolated showers and tstms N of 23N W of 94W. The front
is expected to become stationary through Wednesday and then lift
northward and dissipate by Wednesday night as the next area of
low pressure develops across the central Plains. The surface
ridging will remain nearly stationary anchored across the
northern Gulf the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level anticyclonic circulation is centered E of Cuba
near 22N74W and continues to provide an upper level divergent
environment on the southwestern periphery of the ridge. At the
surface...a stationary front extends from Hispaniola westward
across Jamaica then southwestward to along the coast of Nicaragua
to 12N83W. Scattered showers and widely scattered tstms are
occurring within 180 nm NW of the front...including interior
portions of eastern Honduras and NE Nicaragua. Farther east...a
pre-frontal trough extends along 67W and across Puerto Rico.
Widely scattered showers are occurring N of 16N between 63W-69W.
Otherwise...gentle to moderate trades are occurring and expected
to persist through Friday.

...HISPANIOLA...
Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring across the
island this afternoon due to a stationary front analyzed from
20N70W to near Jamaica near 18N77W. In addition...a surface trough
analyzed E of the front along 67W will continue to provide low-
level moisture convergence across eastern portions of the island
and Mona Passage region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A stationary front extends into the discussion area near 32N64W
extending S-SW to the northern coast of Hispaniola near 20N71W and
into the western Caribbean Sea. A pre-frontal trough extends from
the front near 25N67W to Puerto Rico providing focus for scattered
showers and isolated tstms within 180 nm either side of the front
and surface trough. Additional activity is N of 27N between 58W-
65W. Farther east...another middle to upper level trough extends
from 36N42W SW to an upper level low near 28N47W to a broad base
over the deep tropics near 12N54W. The trough supports a 1012 mb
low centered near 29N46W with the associated stationary front
extending from the low NE beyond 32N43W. A surface trough also
extends SW from the low to 21N56W. Scattered showers and tstms are
occurring primarily NE of the low and and E of the upper level
trough axis S of 27N from 08N-36N between 30W-52W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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