[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010001
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
801 PM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

..ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to
08N15W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 08N15W to
06N34W to 06N52W. Isolated showers are from 01N-07N between 13W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge covers the SE CONUS and extends into the
Gulf where it continues to provide light to gentle NE to E flow E
of 90W and moderate to fresh ESE flow W of 90W. Locally strong SE
winds are over NE Mexico and S Texas adjacent waters ahead of a
stationary front across SE Texas. Low-level moisture convergence
across the NW Gulf waters continue to generate isolated showers
and tstms N of 24N W of 94W. Fair weather prevails elsewhere
being supported by subsidence of very dry air. The center of high
pressure N of the area will shift ENE over NW Atlc waters by
Wednesday morning, resulting in a decrease of the pressure
gradient and the fresh to strong winds in the NW Gulf. The front
will continue to stall through Wednesday and then lift northward
and dissipate by Wednesday night as the next area of low pressure
develops across the central Plains.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad upper level anticyclone covers the Caribbean. In the
middle levels, diffluent flow continue to support scattered
showers and tstms in the vicinity of a surface trough that extends
from 20N75W to Costa Rica near 09N82W. These showers affecting the
W Caribbean W of 74W will continue to affect the W basin as the
trough continues to move towards the Yucatan Peninsula the next
two days. The tail of a stationary front reaches northern
Hispaniola where it supports scattered showers and tstms across
the Island and adjacent waters. A surface trough ahead of this
front support isolated showers across the Mona Passage and Puerto
Rico. Moderate to fresh N flow is ahead of the trough while light
to locally moderate trades are elsewhere. Otherwise, N winds will
decrease to moderate in the NW Caribbean by Wednesday night.

...HISPANIOLA...

The tail of a stationary front reaches northern Hispaniola
supporting scattered showers and tstms across the Island and
adjacent waters. A surface trough ahead of the front along 67W
will continue to provide low-level moisture convergence across
eastern portions of the island and Mona Passage region through
Wednesday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends into the discussion area near 30N65W
extending S-SW to northern Hispaniola near 19N70W. A pre-frontal
trough extends from 25N66W to the Mona Passage providing focus
for scattered showers and isolated tstms within 135 nm either
side of the front and surface trough. Farther east, a middle to
upper level trough supports a 1011 mb low centered near 29N46W
with the associated stationary front extending from the low NE
beyond 31N44W. A surface trough also extends SW from the low to
24N52W to 20N57W. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring from
06N-23N between 44W-53W being supported by diffluent flow aloft
and a surface trough W of the ITCZ along 52W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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