[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311015
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
615 AM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to
06N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 06N17W to
05N30W to 00N50W. Isolated moderate convection is from 02N-09N
between 10W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf of Mexico near
29N85W. 10-15 anticyclonic surface winds are over the Gulf with
mostly fair weather. An area of scattered showers are over the NW
Gulf N of 24N and W of 94W. In the upper levels, zonal flow
prevails with strong subsidence. Expect the surface high to drift
N to the Florida Panhandle. Also expect a cold front with
scattered showers to reach the Texas coast tonight, stall, then
lift N of the Gulf by Wed evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from N Hispaniola at 20N71W to 18N78W
to the Gulf of Honduras at 16N88W. Scattered moderate convection
is within 60 nm of the front. 15-20 kt NE winds are N of the
front. A prefrontal trough is over the central Caribbean from
17N79W to 13N80W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm W of the
trough. Another surface trough is over the Atlantic from 23N66W to
Puerto Rico at 18N66W. Scattered showers are over Puerto Rico.
Elsewhere, clusters of scattered moderate convection are along
the coast of N Colombia. Expect the front to dissipate to a shear
line over the next 48 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers are over the island due to the stationary front.
Expect showers for the next 48 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N65W to 23N67W to N
Hispaniola at 20N71W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm E of
the front. A 1011 mb low is centered over the central Atlantic
near 30N46W. A surface trough extends S form the low to 23N51W.
Scattered showers extend 180 nm E of the trough. Of note in the
upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the central
Atlantic near 28N47W. Upper level diffluence is SE of this low.
Expect the cold front to stall within the next 24 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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