[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310548
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
147 AM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 08N12W to
06N15W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 06N15W to
05N30W to 00N50W. Isolated moderate convection is from 03N-07N
between 20W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 0300 UTC, a 1021 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf of
Mexico near 28N85W. 10-15 anticyclonic surface winds are over the
Gulf with mostly fair weather. In the upper levels, zonal flow
prevails with strong subsidence. Expect the surface high to drift
N to the Florida Panhandle in 24 hours. Also expect a cold front
with scattered showers to reach the Texas coast tonight, stall,
then lift N of the Gulf by Wed evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from the Windward Passage at 20N74W
to 17N80W to the Gulf of Honduras at 16N88W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 60 nm of the front. 15-20 kt NE winds are N
of the front. A prefrontal trough is over the central Caribbean
from 17N79W to 13N80W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm W of the
trough. Another surface trough is over the Atlantic from 23N66W
to Puerto Rico at 18N66W. Scattered showers are over Puerto Rico.
Elsewhere, clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection are over Lake Maracaibo, and along the coast of N
Colombia. Expect the front to dissipate to a shear line over the
next 48 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers are over the island due to the front over the
Windward Passage. Expect showers for the next 48 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N65W to 24N68W to the
Windward Passage at 20N74W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm E
of the front. A 1012 mb low is centered over the central Atlantic
near 30N46W. A dissipating cold front extends S form the low to
22N52W. Scattered showers extend 180 nm E of the front. Of note in
the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the central
Atlantic near 28N47W. Upper level diffluence is SE of this low.
Expect the cold front to stall within the next 24 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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