[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072356
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
756 PM EDT Sat Oct 7 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Nate is centered near 28.4N 89.1W at 07/2100 UTC or
about 44 nm south of the mouth of the Mississippi river. Nate is
moving north-northwest at 20 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 981 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with
gusts to 100 kt. Numerous strong convection is north of 25N
between 84W-91W. A feeder band is to the southeast of this
activity affecting the eastern Gulf of Mexico and far west
Caribbean, mainly over west Cuba and Cayman Islands. See the
latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and the full Advisory/Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details.

A stationary 1008 mb low pressure is located over the central
Atlantic near 32N39W. This low is beginning to acquire subtropical
characteristics, and environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for the development of a tropical or subtropical cyclone
during the next day or so while the low drifts toward the
southwest. Thereafter, the atmosphere is expected to become
hostile for further development. There is a high probability for
tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical is off the coast of Africa with axis from 16N17W to
04N18W, moving west at about 10 kt. The wave is in a moist area,
as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface and 700 mb trough are
both well defined in streamlines analyses. Scattered showers are
observed south of 10N and east of 20W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis from 15N42W
to an embedded 1010 mb low near 09N44W, to 05N44W. The wave is
moving west at around 10 kt. The wave is in a very moist area, as
noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A 700 mb trough is well defined in
streamline analysis. Scattered showers are noted within 50 nm on
either side of the wave's axis.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis from 19N51W
to 08N55W, moving west at 10 kt. This wave is also in a moist
environment, as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface and 700 mb
trough are both well defined. Scattered moderate convection is
from 15N-18N between 49W-53W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 14N17W to
06N23W to 05N30W. The ITCZ extends from 05N30W to 06N42W, then
resumes near 08N46W to 10N54W. Besides the convection mentioned
in the tropical wave section, scattered showers are noted within
50 nm south of the monsoon trough between 20W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Hurricane Nate is moving quickly towards the Gulf Coast. Additional
strengthening is expected before landfall. Refer to the section
above for details. Storm surge warnings have been issued for the
eastern Gulf coastline. Please see the National Weather Service
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.
At this time, Hurricane Nate is the sole source of weather across
the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Hurricane Nate's feeder band extends over western Cuba and the
far west Caribbean, and has been over the same area for a long
period of time. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
are observed west of 78W. To the east, scattered moderate
convection prevails over west Hispaniola and Puerto Rico mainly
due to the combination of an upper-level trough to the north of
the islands and daytime heating/sea breeze interactions. This
activity could move over the Windward and Mona Passages this
evening, but it will weaken quickly overnight. Gentle to moderate
trades prevail across the basin. Expect convection over the west
Caribbean to persist during the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers are over west Hispaniola due to the combination
of an upper-level trough to the north of the islands and daytime
heating/sea breeze interactions. Expect these activity to weaken
overnight. A similar pattern will prevail through the next 24
hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. See the section
above for details. In the west Atlantic waters, a surface trough
extends from 26N69W to 21N69W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted to the east of the boundary from 21N-27N between 60W-68W.
A cold front extends from 31N31W to 20N46W with isolated showers.
A small trough extends south of the front with isolated showers.
The trough extends from 20N39W to 17N42W. A surface ridge prevails
elsewhere anchored by a 1020 mb high centered over the east
Atlantic near 28N28W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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